Research

We publish what we tested

Popular sports ideas — hot hands, short weeks, home field — tested against our own game logs. We publish every result, including the ones that found nothing.

Live studies

Recomputed from our game logs · every player measured against their own baseline

MLBNo hot hand

Is the hot hand real?

When a hitter is on a hitting streak, is he more likely to get a hit the next day than he normally would be?

−2.8 pp

8+ game streaks vs the hitter's own rate

62.4%

vs 61.5%

After 0-fer

62.7%

vs 62.7%

1-2 streak

63.1%

vs 64.2%

3-4 streak

63.8%

vs 65.4%

5-7 streak

64.6%

vs 67.4%

8+ streak

Actual hit rateExpected from own season rateaxis starts at 54.8%

Hitters riding 8+ game streaks got a hit in 64.6% of their next games — which sounds hot, until you compare each one to his own season rate: they were expected to hit in 67.4%. The streak adds nothing (−2.8 pp, z = -1.9). The raw number is high because good hitters are the ones who build streaks.

How we measured it · 39,804 games · 432 hitters · 2026▾

Every 2026 start (3+ PA) by hitters with 30+ such games. For each game we record the streak he entered it on, and his expected hit rate = his season hit-game rate with that game left out. Streaks in a finite season slightly favor 'cold' results even with no real effect (Miller & Sanjurjo, 2018), so small negative gaps are expected by chance.

MLBReal, but small

How much is home field worth to hitters?

Do hitters actually hit better at home, and by how much?

+.007

home batting average edge

HomeAway

Batting avg.247.240

HR per 600 PA18.517.9

Strikeout rate21.7%22.8%

Walk rate8.9%8.5%

League-wide, hitters bat .247 at home and .240 on the road (z = 3.1), strike out less (21.7% vs 22.8%) and walk more. Over 600 plate appearances that's about 0.5 extra home runs — real, but a rounding error next to who the hitter is.

How we measured it · 184,906 plate appearances · 2026▾

Every 2026 plate appearance in our game logs, split by whether the hitter's team was home.

MLBNo September fade

Does hitting fade in September?

As a long season wears on, do hitters get worse in the final month compared to their own year?

−0.4 pp

September hit-rate vs own season average

47.0%

Mar

50.5%

Apr

49.5%

May

51.5%

Jun

50.0%

Jul

49.9%

Aug

49.6%

Sep

43.7%

Oct

Hit-rate vs own season average (shifted to positive for display)axis starts at 35.5%

Comparing each qualified hitter's hit-rate in every month to his own season rate, September comes in at −0.4 points (z = -0.6) across 4,599 games. Mar: −3.0, Apr: +0.5, May: −0.5, Jun: +1.5, Jul: ±0.0, Aug: −0.1, Sep: −0.4, Oct: −6.3. None of the months stand out as a real, sustained fade — the swings are the size random monthly noise produces.

How we measured it · 33,160 player-games · 250 hitters▾

Batters with 300+ AB and 40+ games in the 2026 season (qualified hitters). Each game's hit/no-hit result is compared to that player's own season hit-rate; bucketed by calendar month.

MLBA small dip

Getaway-day games: worse hitting?

When a home team plays a day game right after a night game, do its hitters perform worse?

.238

batting average, day game after a night game

Day-after-nightOther home games

Batting avg.238.253

At-bats6,92422,585

Home hitters batted .238 in games that immediately followed a night game at the same park, versus .253 in every other home game with a recorded first pitch (z = -2.5). A modest dip — consistent with a short-rest effect, though the gap is small next to normal day-to-day variance.

How we measured it · 29,509 at-bats · 1,088 games with known first pitch▾

First-pitch times (mlb_game_weather) converted to each ballpark's local time using its standard-season UTC offset; a game is 'day' if local first pitch is before 5pm. Home-team hitters only, compared across every home game we have a first-pitch time for. Approximate — ignores park roofs and rare early-April/late-Sept clock-change edge cases.

Market backtests

Already live · deepest example today

What We've Measured — College Football

Four angles we tested and killed on our own archive of FBS results and closing lines — SP+ ratings vs the spread (49.8% ATS on 1,589 games), wind, rain and altitude on totals. Published with the same numbers whether they worked or not.

Read the full page →

Other written studies

College Football — SP+, wind, rain, altitude

The angles above, in full: methodology, sample sizes, and the ones that didn't beat the closing line.

NFL — Numbers

Team and player trends pulled from the same gamelog archive our NFL picks are graded against.

WNBA — Numbers

Team and player trends from the WNBA box-score archive, same treatment.

Our track record

MLB — Results

Every MLB pick we've published, graded win or loss, in full.

NFL — Results

Every NFL pick we've published, graded win or loss, in full.

WNBA — Results

Every WNBA pick we've published, graded win or loss, in full.

MLB — NRFI record

Every no-run-first-inning pick, graded, against the league base rate.

MLB — Closing line value

Whether the line moved our way after we made the pick — the standard sportsbooks themselves use to judge a bettor.

Descriptive market statistics, computed daily

64%

of MLB props priced +200 or longer

Of 1,241,776 graded props this season, 790,940 closed at +200 or longer. Staked flat at one unit each, that group returned -29.9%. This describes what the shelf has done, not a strategy.

mlb · recomputed daily from our odds archive

CFB is our deepest write-up because that market has been backtested most extensively — but it's not the only one. NFL and WNBA have their own published number studies above, and our full pick history is public too. Same standard everywhere: publish it whether it worked or not.