CFB
Where they rank
Team-advanced percentile vs. the FBS field · descriptive only, not a prediction of Saturday.
Toledo
Offensive efficiency (PPA)78th pct.
Offensive success rate57th pct.
Explosiveness85th pct.
Defensive efficiency (PPA)83th pct.
Defensive success rate allowed96th pct.
Havoc rate49th pct.
Michigan State
Offensive efficiency (PPA)14th pct.
Offensive success rate54th pct.
Explosiveness4th pct.
Defensive efficiency (PPA)17th pct.
Defensive success rate allowed30th pct.
Havoc rate23th pct.
Toledo · Returning production
Overall (PPA)66.3%
Passing98.5%
Rushing26.3%
Receiving58.4%
Against the spread, last 3 seasons
ATS 13-11 · O/U 12-12 · avg. margin +9.6
Michigan State · Returning production
Overall (PPA)20.9%
Passing16.2%
Rushing18.5%
Receiving24.4%
Against the spread, last 3 seasons
ATS 11-10 · O/U 11-10 · avg. margin -7.6
Head-to-head
Last 1 meetings2026Toledo 20–30 Michigan State
Venue & conditions
Spartan Stadium · East Lansing, MI
76°F · 8.8 mph wind · 20% precip. chance