Luka Dončić

Lakers·Forward-Guard·#77

Player Intel

Note: 3 of his last 5 games are from 2025-26. Luka Dončić has cooled off, averaging 29.2 points over his last 5 games, down from a 35.4 L10 average. Pts+Ast is his strongest prop category tonight (90.0% L10 on Over 29.5). Ast+Reb presents more risk (0.0% L10).

Today’s Props

Over 3.5

3PM-1570

Pinnacle no-vig 52.2% vs DraftKings implied 61.1% at -157 → -14.5% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate60%

EV-15%

67%

50%

L10

60%

L15

73%

L20

70%

Under 3.5

3PM+119MODEL

Pinnacle no-vig 47.8% vs DraftKings implied 45.7% at +119 → +4.7% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate40%

EV+5%

33%

50%

L10

40%

L15

27%

L20

30%

Over 2.5

3PM-3600

Hit Rate80%

EV-7%

67%

75%

L10

80%

L15

87%

L20

90%

Over 4.5

3PM+1320

Hit Rate50%

EV-15%

50%

38%

L10

50%

L15

47%

L20

40%

Over 5.5

3PM+2510

Hit Rate30%

EV-17%

17%

13%

L10

30%

L15

27%

L20

25%

Over 6.5

3PM+4740

Hit Rate20%

EV-18%

L10

20%

L15

20%

L20

20%

Under 7.5

AST+1060

Hit Rate70%

EV-6%

83%

75%

L10

70%

L15

60%

L20

60%

Over 7.5

AST-1400

Hit Rate30%

EV-6%

17%

25%

L10

30%

L15

40%

L20

40%

Over 5.5

AST-4910

Hit Rate80%

EV-5%

83%

88%

L10

80%

L15

73%

L20

75%

Over 6.5

AST-2550

Hit Rate70%

EV-8%

83%

75%

L10

70%

L15

67%

L20

70%

Over 8.5

AST+1230

Pinnacle no-vig 43.1% vs DraftKings implied 44.8% at +123 → -3.8% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate20%

EV-4%

17%

13%

L10

20%

L15

33%

L20

30%

Over 9.5

AST+2100

Hit Rate20%

EV-16%

17%

13%

L10

20%

L15

27%

L20

20%

Over 10.5

AST+3510

Hit Rate10%

EV-18%

17%

13%

L10

10%

L15

20%

L20

15%

Over 11.5

AST+5970

Hit Rate10%

EV-19%

17%

13%

L10

10%

L15

13%

L20

10%

Over 15.5

AstReb-1290

Hit Rate20%

EV-6%

17%

13%

L10

20%

L15

33%

L20

35%

Under 15.5

AstReb-1020

Hit Rate80%

EV-6%

83%

88%

L10

80%

L15

67%

L20

65%

Over 11.5

AstReb-7000

Hit Rate70%

EV-4%

67%

75%

L10

70%

L15

73%

L20

80%

Over 14.5

AstReb-1900

Hit Rate30%

EV-10%

33%

25%

L10

30%

L15

40%

L20

40%

Over 17.5

AstReb+1550

Hit Rate10%

EV-15%

L10

10%

L15

27%

L20

25%

Over 19.5

AstReb+3100

Hit Rate0%

EV-18%

L10

L15

13%

L20

10%

Over 21.5

AstReb+6000

Hit Rate0%

EV-19%

L10

L15

13%

L20

10%

Over 0.5

BLK+1710

Hit Rate30%

EV-16%

33%

38%

L10

30%

L15

40%

L20

50%

Under 31.5

PTS-1100

Pinnacle no-vig 47.0% vs DraftKings implied 52.4% at -110 → -10.3% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate30%

EV-10%

50%

38%

L10

30%

L15

33%

L20

45%

Over 31.5

PTS-1160

Pinnacle no-vig 53.0% vs DraftKings implied 53.7% at -116 → -1.3% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate70%

EV-1%

50%

63%

L10

70%

L15

67%

L20

55%

Over 24.5

PTS-4130

Hit Rate80%

EV-6%

67%

75%

L10

80%

L15

87%

L20

90%

Over 29.5

PTS-1640

Hit Rate70%

EV-11%

50%

63%

L10

70%

L15

80%

L20

65%

Over 34.5

PTS+1400

Hit Rate50%

EV-15%

50%

38%

L10

50%

L15

53%

L20

45%

Over 39.5

PTS+3050

Hit Rate50%

EV-18%

50%

38%

L10

50%

L15

40%

L20

35%

Over 49.5

PtsAst+3700

Hit Rate40%

EV-18%

33%

25%

L10

40%

L15

33%

L20

25%

Under 39.5

PtsAst-1130

Hit Rate40%

EV-7%

50%

L10

40%

L15

33%

L20

45%

Over 44.5

PtsAst+1790

Hit Rate40%

EV-16%

33%

25%

L10

40%

L15

33%

L20

30%

Over 39.5

PtsAst-1170

Hit Rate60%

EV-7%

50%

L10

60%

L15

67%

L20

55%

Over 34.5

PtsAst-2790

Hit Rate80%

EV-8%

67%

75%

L10

80%

L15

87%

L20

75%

Over 29.5

PtsAst-7500

Hit Rate90%

EV-4%

83%

88%

L10

90%

L15

93%

L20

95%

Over 29.5

PtsReb-6600

Hit Rate80%

EV-4%

67%

75%

L10

80%

L15

87%

L20

90%

Over 34.5

PtsReb-2610

Hit Rate80%

EV-8%

67%

75%

L10

80%

L15

87%

L20

80%

Over 39.5

PtsReb-1150

Hit Rate50%

EV-7%

50%

38%

L10

50%

L15

67%

L20

55%

Over 44.5

PtsReb+1750

Hit Rate50%

EV-16%

50%

38%

L10

50%

L15

40%

L20

35%

Over 49.5

PtsReb+3510

Hit Rate10%

EV-18%

L10

10%

L15

13%

L20

15%

Under 39.5

PtsReb-1150

Hit Rate50%

EV-7%

50%

63%

L10

50%

L15

33%

L20

45%

Over 54.5

PtsRebAst+2210

Hit Rate40%

EV-17%

33%

25%

L10

40%

L15

33%

L20

30%

Under 47.5

PtsRebAst-1110

Pinnacle no-vig 49.6% vs DraftKings implied 52.6% at -111 → -5.7% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate50%

EV-6%

50%

63%

L10

50%

L15

47%

L20

55%

Over 59.5

PtsRebAst+4290

Hit Rate10%

EV-18%

L10

10%

L15

13%

L20

10%

Over 49.5

PtsRebAst+1090

Hit Rate50%

EV-14%

50%

38%

L10

50%

L15

53%

L20

45%

Over 47.5

PtsRebAst-1180

Pinnacle no-vig 50.4% vs DraftKings implied 54.1% at -118 → -6.9% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate50%

EV-7%

50%

38%

L10

50%

L15

53%

L20

45%

Over 44.5

PtsRebAst-1890

Hit Rate70%

EV-10%

50%

63%

L10

70%

L15

80%

L20

70%

Over 39.5

PtsRebAst-4240

Hit Rate80%

EV-6%

67%

75%

L10

80%

L15

87%

L20

90%

Over 10.5

REB+3430

Hit Rate0%

EV-18%

L10

L15

13%

L20

15%

Over 11.5

REB+5680

Hit Rate0%

EV-19%

L10

L15

L20

Over 9.5

REB+2140

Hit Rate0%

EV-17%

L10

L15

20%

L20

25%

Over 8.5

REB+1270

Hit Rate10%

EV-14%

L10

10%

L15

27%

L20

35%

Over 6.5

REB-2340

Hit Rate50%

EV-9%

33%

38%

L10

50%

L15

60%

L20

60%

Over 5.5

REB-4380

Hit Rate70%

EV-6%

67%

63%

L10

70%

L15

80%

L20

80%

Over 7.5

REB-1320

Pinnacle no-vig 47.2% vs DraftKings implied 56.9% at -132 → -17.1% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate30%

EV-17%

33%

25%

L10

30%

L15

47%

L20

50%

Under 7.5

REB+100MODEL

Pinnacle no-vig 52.8% vs DraftKings implied 50.0% at +100 → +5.6% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate70%

EV+6%

67%

75%

L10

70%

L15

53%

L20

50%

Over 4.5

REB-9600

Hit Rate90%

EV-3%

83%

88%

L10

90%

L15

93%

L20

95%

Over 0.5

STL-4460

Hit Rate90%

EV-6%

83%

88%

L10

90%

L15

93%

L20

90%

Over 2.5

STL+3180

Hit Rate50%

EV-18%

33%

50%

L10

50%

L15

40%

L20

40%

Under 1.5

STL-1400

Hit Rate40%

EV-7%

50%

38%

L10

40%

L15

33%

L20

40%

Over 1.5

STL+1050

Hit Rate60%

EV-7%

50%

63%

L10

60%

L15

67%

L20

60%

Over 1.5

StlBlk-1600

Hit Rate60%

EV-11%

50%

63%

L10

60%

L15

73%

L20

75%

Over 2.5

StlBlk+1850

Hit Rate50%

EV-16%

33%

50%

L10

50%

L15

53%

L20

50%

Over 3.5

StlBlk+4750

Hit Rate30%

EV-18%

17%

25%

L10

30%

L15

33%

L20

35%

Prop Correlations

How often props hit together in the last 20 games — useful for parlays

O 2.5 3-Pointers

18/20 hit

90%

both hit

O 24.5 Points

18/20 hit

O 2.5 3-Pointers

18/20 hit

80%

both hit

O 34.5 Pts+Reb

16/20 hit

O 24.5 Points

18/20 hit

80%

both hit

O 34.5 Pts+Reb

16/20 hit

O 2.5 3-Pointers

18/20 hit

75%

both hit

O 34.5 Pts+Ast

15/20 hit

O 24.5 Points

18/20 hit

75%

both hit

O 34.5 Pts+Ast

15/20 hit

O 34.5 Pts+Ast

15/20 hit

70%

both hit

O 34.5 Pts+Reb

16/20 hit

O 2.5 3-Pointers

18/20 hit

60%

both hit

O 6.5 Assists

14/20 hit

O 2.5 3-Pointers

18/20 hit

60%

both hit

O 6.5 Rebounds

12/20 hit

O 2.5 3-Pointers

18/20 hit

60%

both hit

O 1.5 Steals

12/20 hit

O 6.5 Assists

14/20 hit

60%

both hit

O 24.5 Points

18/20 hit

Props that co-hit frequently may be correlated through playing time or game script — consider pairing them in parlays.

Recent Game Log

Date	Matchup	W/L	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	3PM	TOV	FG
Oct 23	LAL vs. LAC	W	37	23	6	7	0	1	2	11	8/21
Oct 21	LAL vs. GSW	W	30	28	8	7	3	0	5	6	7/18
Apr 2	LAL @ OKC	L	26	12	4	7	1	0	1	6	3/10
Mar 31	LAL vs. CLE	W	34	42	5	12	2	0	6	0	13/26
Mar 27	LAL vs. BKN	W	39	41	8	3	3	1	5	5	15/25
Mar 25	LAL @ IND	W	38	43	6	7	1	0	4	5	15/30
Mar 23	LAL @ DET	L	39	32	7	6	3	0	3	3	11/29
Mar 21	LAL @ ORL	W	38	33	5	8	4	1	3	4	12/30
Mar 19	LAL @ MIA	W	38	60	7	3	5	0	9	2	18/30
Mar 18	LAL @ HOU	W	38	40	9	10	1	0	7	5	12/25
Mar 16	LAL @ HOU	W	40	36	6	4	2	0	4	4	14/27
Mar 14	LAL vs. DEN	W	43	30	11	13	1	3	4	6	10/26
Mar 12	LAL vs. CHI	W	37	51	10	9	3	1	9	1	17/31
Mar 10	LAL vs. MIN	W	35	31	11	11	2	1	4	4	11/24
Mar 8	LAL vs. NYK	W	38	35	8	4	2	0	5	6	11/25
Mar 6	LAL vs. IND	W	32	44	9	5	3	2	7	3	14/25
Mar 5	LAL @ DEN	L	40	27	11	7	4	0	3	3	11/24
Mar 3	LAL vs. NOP	W	38	27	10	7	0	1	3	7	10/22
Mar 1	LAL vs. SAC	W	29	28	5	9	1	1	4	1	10/16
Feb 28	LAL @ GSW	W	29	26	6	8	1	1	4	2	9/17

Date	Matchup	W/L	PTS	REB	AST	3PM
Oct 23	LAL vs. LAC	W	23	6	7	2
Oct 21	LAL vs. GSW	W	28	8	7	5
Apr 2	LAL @ OKC	L	12	4	7	1
Mar 31	LAL vs. CLE	W	42	5	12	6
Mar 27	LAL vs. BKN	W	41	8	3	5
Mar 25	LAL @ IND	W	43	6	7	4
Mar 23	LAL @ DET	L	32	7	6	3
Mar 21	LAL @ ORL	W	33	5	8	3
Mar 19	LAL @ MIA	W	60	7	3	9
Mar 18	LAL @ HOU	W	40	9	10	7
Mar 16	LAL @ HOU	W	36	6	4	4
Mar 14	LAL vs. DEN	W	30	11	13	4
Mar 12	LAL vs. CHI	W	51	10	9	9
Mar 10	LAL vs. MIN	W	31	11	11	4
Mar 8	LAL vs. NYK	W	35	8	4	5
Mar 6	LAL vs. IND	W	44	9	5	7
Mar 5	LAL @ DEN	L	27	11	7	3
Mar 3	LAL vs. NOP	W	27	10	7	3
Mar 1	LAL vs. SAC	W	28	5	9	4
Feb 28	LAL @ GSW	W	26	6	8	4

Facts about Luka Dončić

All facts →

33.52025-26 PPG leader

2025-26 PPG leader: Luka Dončić, 33.5 (20+ games).

Verified fact →