2026-27 Season Simulator
50,000 simulated seasons · updated nightly · last run Oct 25, 5:30 AM ET · 36 games played so far are locked in
Championship odds
Share of the 50,000 simulated seasons each team won the title.
- 1OKC18.1%
- 2
POR13.0% - 3DET11.0%
- 4
TOR9.1% - 5
PHI8.8% - 6
HOU7.0% - 7
SAS6.0% - 8
MIN4.2% - 9
CLE4.1% - 10
DEN3.9% - 11
BOS3.1% - 12
LAL3.0%
Offseason movers
How much the 2026-27 roster changes a team's rating vs the minutes it actually got in 2025-26 (points per game, before weighting).
- POR+7.8
Added Ja Morant (from MEM)
- PHI+6.9
Added Jaylen Brown (from BOS)
IND+5.2Added Kelly Oubre Jr. (from PHI)
WAS+3.2Added Anthony Davis (from DAL)
LAC-7.8Lost Kawhi Leonard (to TOR)
SAC-7.6Lost DeMar DeRozan (to DEN)
- BOS-4.1
Lost Jaylen Brown (to PHI)
All 30 teams
| Team | Conference seed odds (1 → 15) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 OKC2-0 | 56.748-65 | 97.8% | 93.4% | 6.2% | 46.6% | 28.2% | 18.1% | +6.2 | |
2 POR2-0 | 54.345-63 | 95.3% | 87.5% | 11.5% | 38.2% | 21.1% | 13.0% | +5.4 | |
3 DET2-0 | 52.944-62 | 95.8% | 89.1% | 10.0% | 39.8% | 22.8% | 11.0% | +4.5 | |
4 TOR2-0 | 51.442-61 | 93.8% | 84.3% | 14.1% | 35.3% | 19.6% | 9.1% | +4.1 | |
5 PHI3-0 | 52.043-61 | 95.0% | 87.2% | 11.7% | 35.3% | 19.0% | 8.8% | +4.0 | |
6 HOU3-0 | 52.043-61 | 91.8% | 80.5% | 17.5% | 26.2% | 12.8% | 7.0% | +4.0 | |
7 SAS1-2 | 49.841-59 | 87.5% | 71.9% | 24.4% | 23.0% | 11.0% | 6.0% | +3.7 | |
8 MIN2-0 | 48.639-58 | 83.3% | 65.2% | 29.2% | 18.3% | 8.2% | 4.2% | +3.0 | |
9 CLE1-1 | 47.338-57 | 84.5% | 68.3% | 26.4% | 22.0% | 10.5% | 4.1% | +2.5 | |
10 DEN1-1 | 47.938-57 | 81.1% | 61.8% | 31.6% | 17.5% | 7.6% | 3.9% | +3.0 | |
11 BOS1-1 | 46.136-56 | 80.8% | 62.7% | 30.2% | 17.8% | 8.1% | 3.1% | +1.8 | |
12 LAL2-0 | 47.438-57 | 78.8% | 58.9% | 33.8% | 14.7% | 5.9% | 3.0% | +2.4 | |
13  ATL2-1 | 47.038-56 | 83.7% | 67.4% | 27.3% | 18.4% | 8.2% | 2.9% | +2.0 | |
14  NYK0-2 | 43.334-53 | 69.9% | 47.2% | 39.5% | 13.0% | 5.6% | 2.0% | +1.3 | |
15  PHX1-1 | 42.132-52 | 54.6% | 30.9% | 46.7% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% | +0.5 | |
16  CHA2-1 | 39.830-49 | 51.8% | 29.1% | 46.1% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | -0.7 | |
17  ORL0-2 | 39.129-49 | 49.0% | 26.8% | 44.9% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | -0.5 | |
18  GSW0-3 | 38.829-48 | 38.5% | 16.7% | 46.6% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | -0.2 | |
19  NOP0-3 | 36.427-46 | 26.6% | 9.9% | 39.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | -1.1 | |
20 IND1-1 | 35.726-45 | 31.4% | 14.3% | 40.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | -2.2 | |
21  MIA0-3 | 35.626-45 | 30.5% | 13.1% | 40.5% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | -1.9 | |
22  MEM2-0 | 36.327-46 | 25.3% | 10.4% | 38.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | -2.1 | |
23 LAC1-1 | 33.924-44 | 17.1% | 6.0% | 30.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -2.8 | |
24  DAL1-2 | 33.825-43 | 16.4% | 5.2% | 30.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | -2.8 | |
25 WAS2-1 | 31.422-41 | 13.9% | 4.8% | 25.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | -4.2 | |
26  UTA1-1 | 29.020-38 | 5.8% | 1.5% | 13.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -4.7 | |
27  BKN0-2 | 28.820-38 | 8.4% | 2.6% | 17.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -4.6 | |
28  CHI1-2 | 27.819-37 | 6.0% | 1.6% | 13.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -5.3 | |
29  MIL0-3 | 27.319-36 | 5.5% | 1.5% | 12.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -5.3 | |
30 SAC0-2 | 17.510-25 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -9.9 |
Wins range = the middle 80% of simulated seasons. Playoffs = made the 16-team bracket, through the play-in if needed. Percentages are shares of simulated seasons, rounded to 0.1.
How the simulator works
1 Start from last season. Every 2025-26 regular-season game margin is fit at once, so each team gets a rating in points per game that accounts for who it played and where (home court came out at 1.7 points).
2 Adjust for roster moves. Each player is valued by his box-score production per minute (Game Score) above a replacement-level player, converted to points of team margin (fit on 60 team-seasons). A team's current roster — from the official player directory, so trades and signings like LeBron James to Philadelphia count — is compared with the minutes it actually played last season. Players back from injury count too; rookies count as replacement level.
3 Regress toward average. Ratings carry 56% of last season and 52% of the roster adjustment. Those weights come from projecting 2025-26 from 2024-25 the same way: that cut the average rating error to 4.7 points vs 5.1 using last season alone.
4 Play the season 50,000 times. Each simulated season gives every team a random “true talent” error (±2.75 points), then plays all 1,230 games with a game-to-game spread of 12.5 points. Ties are broken at random.
5 Postseason. Seeds 7-10 play the play-in (7 vs 8, 9 vs 10, then loser vs winner); the bracket is best-of-seven with home court to the higher seed.
6 Updated nightly. Once games are played, results are locked in and each rating blends toward the team's 2026-27 form (after 20 games, this season counts as much as the preseason rating).
Limits: box scores miss most defense, so rosters built on defenders may be underrated; the official schedule lists 1200 games until the NBA Cup knockout dates are set, and the remaining 30 are simulated as neutral-site games. These are research estimates from historical data, not predictions of any single game.