LaMelo Ball

Timberwolves·Guard·#1

Player Intel

Note: 3 of his last 5 games are from 2025-26. LaMelo Ball has cooled off, averaging 21.0 points over his last 5 games, down from a 23.6 L10 average. 3-Pointers is his strongest prop category tonight (100.0% L10 on Over 1.5). Rebounds presents more risk (0.0% L10).

Today’s Props

Over 6.5

3PM+5940

Hit Rate10%

EV-19%

13%

L10

10%

L15

L20

10%

Over 5.5

3PM+3250

Hit Rate30%

EV-18%

17%

38%

L10

30%

L15

27%

L20

30%

Over 3.5

3PM-1120

Pinnacle no-vig 47.2% vs DraftKings implied 52.8% at -112 → -10.7% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate60%

EV-11%

50%

63%

L10

60%

L15

60%

L20

65%

Under 3.5

3PM-1170

Pinnacle no-vig 52.8% vs DraftKings implied 53.9% at -117 → -2.0% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate40%

EV-2%

50%

38%

L10

40%

L15

40%

L20

35%

Over 1.5

3PM-6500

Hit Rate100%

EV-4%

100%

L10

100%

L15

100%

L20

100%

Over 2.5

3PM-2440

Hit Rate70%

EV-9%

67%

75%

L10

70%

L15

80%

L20

85%

Over 4.5

3PM+1750

Hit Rate60%

EV-16%

50%

63%

L10

60%

L15

53%

L20

50%

Over 6.5

AST-1380

Pinnacle no-vig 52.5% vs DraftKings implied 58.0% at -138 → -9.4% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate50%

EV-9%

33%

38%

L10

50%

L15

53%

L20

45%

Under 6.5

AST+1050

Pinnacle no-vig 47.5% vs DraftKings implied 48.8% at +105 → -2.7% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate50%

EV-3%

67%

63%

L10

50%

L15

47%

L20

55%

Over 3.5

AST-10000

Hit Rate100%

EV-3%

100%

L10

100%

L15

93%

L20

90%

Over 4.5

AST-4560

Hit Rate100%

EV-6%

100%

L10

100%

L15

93%

L20

85%

Over 5.5

AST-2460

Hit Rate80%

EV-9%

67%

75%

L10

80%

L15

80%

L20

65%

Over 7.5

AST+1230

Hit Rate50%

EV-14%

33%

38%

L10

50%

L15

53%

L20

45%

Over 8.5

AST+2060

Hit Rate30%

EV-16%

17%

13%

L10

30%

L15

27%

L20

25%

Over 9.5

AST+3470

Hit Rate20%

EV-18%

17%

13%

L10

20%

L15

13%

L20

15%

Over 10.5

AST+5780

Hit Rate10%

EV-19%

L10

10%

L15

L20

10%

Over 11.5

AstReb-1260

Hit Rate50%

EV-6%

50%

38%

L10

50%

L15

47%

L20

40%

Under 11.5

AstReb-1040

Hit Rate50%

EV-6%

50%

63%

L10

50%

L15

53%

L20

60%

Over 7.5

AstReb-7000

Hit Rate90%

EV-4%

83%

88%

L10

90%

L15

87%

L20

80%

Over 9.5

AstReb-2750

Hit Rate80%

EV-8%

67%

75%

L10

80%

L15

80%

L20

75%

Over 14.5

AstReb+2400

Hit Rate20%

EV-17%

17%

13%

L10

20%

L15

20%

L20

20%

Over 19.5

PTS-1040

Hit Rate60%

EV-6%

67%

75%

L10

60%

L15

60%

L20

65%

Over 17.5

PTS-1510

Hit Rate80%

EV-11%

83%

88%

L10

80%

L15

80%

L20

80%

Over 24.5

PTS+2320

Hit Rate40%

EV-17%

33%

50%

L10

40%

L15

27%

L20

35%

Over 29.5

PTS+5280

Hit Rate30%

EV-19%

17%

38%

L10

30%

L15

20%

L20

25%

Over 14.5

PTS-2740

Hit Rate90%

EV-8%

83%

88%

L10

90%

L15

87%

L20

90%

Over 11.5

PTS-5570

Hit Rate100%

EV-5%

100%

L10

100%

L15

100%

L20

100%

Over 9.5

PTS-9800

Hit Rate100%

EV-3%

100%

L10

100%

L15

100%

L20

100%

Under 19.5

PTS-1220

Hit Rate40%

EV-6%

33%

25%

L10

40%

L15

40%

L20

35%

Over 19.5

PtsAst-3910

Hit Rate90%

EV-6%

83%

88%

L10

90%

L15

93%

L20

90%

Over 24.5

PtsAst-1560

Hit Rate90%

EV-11%

83%

88%

L10

90%

L15

80%

L20

80%

Over 26.5

PtsAst-1100

Hit Rate70%

EV-6%

67%

75%

L10

70%

L15

67%

L20

65%

Over 29.5

PtsAst+1470

Hit Rate40%

EV-15%

33%

50%

L10

40%

L15

27%

L20

35%

Over 34.5

PtsAst+3190

Hit Rate40%

EV-18%

33%

50%

L10

40%

L15

27%

L20

30%

Under 26.5

PtsAst-1200

Hit Rate30%

EV-6%

33%

25%

L10

30%

L15

33%

L20

35%

Under 24.5

PtsReb-1230

Hit Rate40%

EV-6%

33%

25%

L10

40%

L15

47%

L20

40%

Over 34.5

PtsReb+4510

Hit Rate30%

EV-18%

17%

38%

L10

30%

L15

20%

L20

25%

Over 29.5

PtsReb+2090

Hit Rate40%

EV-16%

33%

50%

L10

40%

L15

27%

L20

35%

Over 19.5

PtsReb-2560

Hit Rate80%

EV-8%

83%

88%

L10

80%

L15

87%

L20

90%

Over 14.5

PtsReb-7300

Hit Rate100%

EV-4%

100%

L10

100%

L15

100%

L20

100%

Over 24.5

PtsReb-1070

Hit Rate60%

EV-6%

67%

75%

L10

60%

L15

53%

L20

60%

Over 19.5

PtsRebAst-8800

Hit Rate100%

EV-4%

100%

L10

100%

L15

100%

L20

100%

Over 24.5

PtsRebAst-3450

Hit Rate90%

EV-7%

83%

88%

L10

90%

L15

93%

L20

90%

Over 29.5

PtsRebAst-1510

Hit Rate70%

EV-11%

67%

75%

L10

70%

L15

73%

L20

75%

Over 31.5

PtsRebAst-1130

Pinnacle no-vig 47.4% vs DraftKings implied 53.1% at -113 → -10.7% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate60%

EV-11%

50%

63%

L10

60%

L15

53%

L20

55%

Over 34.5

PtsRebAst+1410

Hit Rate40%

EV-15%

33%

50%

L10

40%

L15

27%

L20

35%

Over 39.5

PtsRebAst+2930

Hit Rate40%

EV-17%

33%

50%

L10

40%

L15

27%

L20

30%

Over 44.5

PtsRebAst+6000

Hit Rate30%

EV-19%

17%

38%

L10

30%

L15

20%

L20

20%

Under 31.5

PtsRebAst-1160

Pinnacle no-vig 52.6% vs DraftKings implied 53.7% at -116 → -2.0% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate40%

EV-2%

50%

38%

L10

40%

L15

47%

L20

45%

Over 6.5

REB+2800

Hit Rate10%

EV-17%

17%

13%

L10

10%

L15

13%

L20

10%

Over 7.5

REB+4940

Hit Rate0%

EV-18%

L10

L15

L20

Over 5.5

REB+1550

Hit Rate20%

EV-15%

17%

13%

L10

20%

L15

27%

L20

35%

Over 3.5

REB-2480

Hit Rate60%

EV-9%

67%

63%

L10

60%

L15

67%

L20

70%

Over 2.5

REB-5820

Hit Rate70%

EV-5%

67%

75%

L10

70%

L15

80%

L20

85%

Under 4.5

REB-1080

Pinnacle no-vig 46.8% vs DraftKings implied 51.9% at -108 → -9.9% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate40%

EV-10%

33%

38%

L10

40%

L15

40%

L20

40%

Over 4.5

REB-1220

Pinnacle no-vig 53.2% vs DraftKings implied 55.0% at -122 → -3.1% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate60%

EV-3%

67%

63%

L10

60%

L15

60%

L20

60%

Over 1.5

STL+1350

Hit Rate50%

EV-6%

67%

50%

L10

50%

L15

40%

L20

45%

Under 1.5

STL-1800

Hit Rate50%

EV-6%

33%

50%

L10

50%

L15

60%

L20

55%

Over 0.5

STL-3320

Hit Rate90%

EV-7%

83%

88%

L10

90%

L15

80%

L20

85%

Over 2.5

STL+4070

Hit Rate0%

EV-18%

L10

L15

L20

15%

Prop Correlations

How often props hit together in the last 20 games — useful for parlays

O 2.5 3-Pointers

17/20 hit

85%

both hit

O 19.5 Pts+Reb

18/20 hit

O 14.5 Points

18/20 hit

85%

both hit

O 19.5 Pts+Reb

18/20 hit

O 14.5 Points

18/20 hit

85%

both hit

O 24.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

18/20 hit

O 19.5 Pts+Reb

18/20 hit

85%

both hit

O 24.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

18/20 hit

O 2.5 3-Pointers

17/20 hit

80%

both hit

O 14.5 Points

18/20 hit

O 2.5 3-Pointers

17/20 hit

80%

both hit

O 24.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

18/20 hit

O 14.5 Points

18/20 hit

80%

both hit

O 0.5 Steals

17/20 hit

O 19.5 Pts+Reb

18/20 hit

75%

both hit

O 0.5 Steals

17/20 hit

O 24.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

18/20 hit

75%

both hit

O 0.5 Steals

17/20 hit

O 2.5 3-Pointers

17/20 hit

70%

both hit

O 0.5 Steals

17/20 hit

Props that co-hit frequently may be correlated through playing time or game script — consider pairing them in parlays.

Recent Game Log

Date	Matchup	W/L	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	3PM	TOV	FG
Oct 23	MIN @ ORL	W	23	12	5	5	2	0	2	3	4/13
Oct 21	MIN @ MIA	W	29	21	2	6	2	0	5	1	7/17
Apr 17	CHA @ ORL	L	25	23	2	5	0	0	3	3	7/17
Apr 14	CHA vs. MIA	W	40	30	5	10	1	1	2	3	12/31
Apr 12	CHA @ NYK	W	29	19	7	6	2	1	5	5	7/19
Apr 10	CHA vs. DET	L	33	27	5	8	2	1	6	4	7/20
Apr 7	CHA @ BOS	L	37	36	5	6	1	0	6	4	12/24
Apr 5	CHA @ MIN	W	31	35	3	8	1	0	7	4	13/22
Apr 3	CHA vs. IND	W	30	18	6	9	2	0	5	3	6/15
Apr 2	CHA vs. PHX	W	25	15	2	11	1	0	2	0	6/13
Mar 31	CHA @ BKN	W	28	14	7	9	0	0	3	3	4/12
Mar 29	CHA vs. BOS	L	26	19	4	3	1	0	3	4	7/19
Mar 28	CHA vs. PHI	L	37	20	3	8	1	0	5	2	7/26
Mar 26	CHA vs. NYK	W	36	22	5	6	0	0	4	1	7/14
Mar 24	CHA vs. SAC	W	23	20	6	8	2	0	6	0	7/16
Mar 21	CHA vs. MEM	W	29	29	3	4	3	1	7	3	9/19
Mar 19	CHA vs. ORL	W	20	20	6	5	3	1	3	3	7/13
Mar 17	CHA vs. MIA	W	33	30	6	13	1	0	4	5	11/22
Mar 14	CHA @ SAS	L	22	17	4	2	3	1	4	1	6/13
Mar 11	CHA @ SAC	W	31	30	6	5	1	0	6	3	10/22

Date	Matchup	W/L	PTS	REB	AST	3PM
Oct 23	MIN @ ORL	W	12	5	5	2
Oct 21	MIN @ MIA	W	21	2	6	5
Apr 17	CHA @ ORL	L	23	2	5	3
Apr 14	CHA vs. MIA	W	30	5	10	2
Apr 12	CHA @ NYK	W	19	7	6	5
Apr 10	CHA vs. DET	L	27	5	8	6
Apr 7	CHA @ BOS	L	36	5	6	6
Apr 5	CHA @ MIN	W	35	3	8	7
Apr 3	CHA vs. IND	W	18	6	9	5
Apr 2	CHA vs. PHX	W	15	2	11	2
Mar 31	CHA @ BKN	W	14	7	9	3
Mar 29	CHA vs. BOS	L	19	4	3	3
Mar 28	CHA vs. PHI	L	20	3	8	5
Mar 26	CHA vs. NYK	W	22	5	6	4
Mar 24	CHA vs. SAC	W	20	6	8	6
Mar 21	CHA vs. MEM	W	29	3	4	7
Mar 19	CHA vs. ORL	W	20	6	5	3
Mar 17	CHA vs. MIA	W	30	6	13	4
Mar 14	CHA @ SAS	L	17	4	2	4
Mar 11	CHA @ SAC	W	30	6	5	6