Aaron Nesmith
Pacers·Guard-Forward·#23Player Intel
Note: 4 of his last 5 games are from 2025-26. Aaron Nesmith has cooled off, averaging 14.6 points over his last 5 games, down from a 17.5 L10 average. 3-Pointers is his strongest prop category tonight (100.0% L10 on Over 0.5). Steals presents more risk (0.0% L10).
Today’s Props
Over 9.5
PTS-1310Pinnacle no-vig 52.2% vs DraftKings implied 56.7% at -131 → -7.9% expected value on the price.
L6
67%
L8
75%
L10
80%
L15
60%
L20
65%
Prop Correlations
How often props hit together in the last 20 games — useful for parlays
O 9.5 Pts+Reb
16/20 hit
80%
both hit
O 9.5 Pts+Reb+Ast
16/20 hit
O 7.5 Points
15/20 hit
75%
both hit
O 9.5 Pts+Ast
15/20 hit
O 7.5 Points
15/20 hit
75%
both hit
O 9.5 Pts+Reb
16/20 hit
O 7.5 Points
15/20 hit
75%
both hit
O 9.5 Pts+Reb+Ast
16/20 hit
O 9.5 Pts+Ast
15/20 hit
75%
both hit
O 9.5 Pts+Reb
16/20 hit
O 9.5 Pts+Ast
15/20 hit
75%
both hit
O 9.5 Pts+Reb+Ast
16/20 hit
O 1.5 3-Pointers
10/20 hit
50%
both hit
O 7.5 Points
15/20 hit
O 1.5 3-Pointers
10/20 hit
50%
both hit
O 9.5 Pts+Ast
15/20 hit
O 1.5 3-Pointers
10/20 hit
50%
both hit
O 9.5 Pts+Reb
16/20 hit
O 1.5 3-Pointers
10/20 hit
50%
both hit
O 9.5 Pts+Reb+Ast
16/20 hit
Props that co-hit frequently may be correlated through playing time or game script — consider pairing them in parlays.
Recent Game Log
| Date | Matchup | W/L | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | 3PM | TOV | FG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | IND vs. DAL | L | 20 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2/7 |
| Mar 27 | IND vs. LAC | L | 35 | 26 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10/14 |
| Mar 25 | IND vs. LAL | L | 32 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6/13 |
| Mar 23 | IND @ ORL | W | 35 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6/11 |
| Mar 21 | IND @ SAS | L | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2/7 |
| Mar 18 | IND vs. POR | L | 26 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6/13 |
| Mar 17 | IND @ NYK | L | 24 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5/8 |
| Mar 15 | IND @ MIL | L | 29 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10/14 |
| Mar 13 | IND vs. NYK | L | 34 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5/13 |
| Mar 10 | IND @ SAC | L | 35 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10/22 |
| Mar 8 | IND @ POR | L | 25 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4/6 |
| Mar 6 | IND @ LAL | L | 23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3/10 |
| Mar 4 | IND @ LAC | L | 20 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1/8 |
| Feb 19 | IND @ WAS | L | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0/3 |
| Feb 10 | IND @ NYK | W | 37 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4/10 |
| Feb 8 | IND @ TOR | L | 23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2/4 |
| Feb 6 | IND @ MIL | L | 27 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4/9 |
| Feb 2 | IND vs. HOU | L | 33 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6/13 |
| Jan 31 | IND vs. ATL | W | 34 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8/10 |
| Jan 28 | IND vs. CHI | W | 34 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5/9 |
| Date | Matchup | W/L | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | IND vs. DAL | L | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Mar 27 | IND vs. LAC | L | 26 | 7 | 2 | 4 |
| Mar 25 | IND vs. LAL | L | 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Mar 23 | IND @ ORL | W | 19 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Mar 21 | IND @ SAS | L | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Mar 18 | IND vs. POR | L | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Mar 17 | IND @ NYK | L | 14 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Mar 15 | IND @ MIL | L | 32 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| Mar 13 | IND vs. NYK | L | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Mar 10 | IND @ SAC | L | 29 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Mar 8 | IND @ POR | L | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Mar 6 | IND @ LAL | L | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Mar 4 | IND @ LAC | L | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Feb 19 | IND @ WAS | L | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Feb 10 | IND @ NYK | W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| Feb 8 | IND @ TOR | L | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Feb 6 | IND @ MIL | L | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Feb 2 | IND vs. HOU | L | 17 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
| Jan 31 | IND vs. ATL | W | 23 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Jan 28 | IND vs. CHI | W | 14 | 4 | 4 | 3 |