Chet Holmgren

Thunder·Center-Forward·#7

Player Intel

Note: 3 of his last 5 games are from 2025-26. Chet Holmgren has been steady, averaging 11.2 points over his last 5 games (11.7 L10). Points is his strongest prop category tonight (90.0% L10 on Over 7.5). Assists presents more risk (0.0% L10).

Today’s Props

Over 0.5

3PM-1760

Pinnacle no-vig 60.7% vs DraftKings implied 63.8% at -176 → -4.8% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate20%

EV-5%

13%

L10

20%

L15

33%

L20

50%

Under 0.5

3PM+1330

Pinnacle no-vig 39.3% vs DraftKings implied 42.9% at +133 → -8.4% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate80%

EV-8%

100%

88%

L10

80%

L15

67%

L20

50%

Over 1.5

3PM+2550

Hit Rate10%

EV-17%

L10

10%

L15

27%

L20

40%

Over 2.5

AST+3850

Hit Rate0%

EV-18%

L10

L15

13%

L20

15%

Under 1.5

AST-1570

Pinnacle no-vig 57.2% vs DraftKings implied 61.1% at -157 → -6.4% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate60%

EV-6%

50%

L10

60%

L15

53%

L20

60%

Over 1.5

AST+1190

Pinnacle no-vig 42.8% vs DraftKings implied 45.7% at +119 → -6.2% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate40%

EV-6%

50%

L10

40%

L15

47%

L20

40%

Over 11.5

AstReb+2100

Hit Rate30%

EV-16%

50%

38%

L10

30%

L15

40%

L20

35%

Over 7.5

AstReb-3000

Hit Rate70%

EV-8%

83%

63%

L10

70%

L15

80%

L20

80%

Under 9.5

AstReb-1180

Hit Rate60%

EV-6%

33%

50%

L10

60%

L15

47%

L20

50%

Over 9.5

AstReb-1110

Hit Rate40%

EV-6%

67%

50%

L10

40%

L15

53%

L20

50%

Over 3.5

BLK+4950

Hit Rate20%

EV-18%

33%

25%

L10

20%

L15

13%

L20

25%

Over 2.5

BLK+1910

Hit Rate20%

EV-16%

33%

25%

L10

20%

L15

20%

L20

30%

Over 0.5

BLK-7100

Hit Rate70%

EV-4%

100%

75%

L10

70%

L15

73%

L20

80%

Under 1.5

BLK+1110

Hit Rate50%

EV-7%

33%

50%

L10

50%

L15

47%

L20

35%

Over 1.5

BLK-1480

Hit Rate50%

EV-7%

67%

50%

L10

50%

L15

53%

L20

65%

Under 13.5

PTS-1010

Pinnacle no-vig 44.7% vs DraftKings implied 50.2% at -101 → -11.0% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate60%

EV-11%

67%

63%

L10

60%

L15

47%

L20

35%

Over 13.5

PTS-1260

Pinnacle no-vig 55.3% vs DraftKings implied 55.8% at -126 → -0.8% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate40%

EV-1%

33%

38%

L10

40%

L15

53%

L20

65%

Over 7.5

PTS-9700

Hit Rate90%

EV-3%

83%

88%

L10

90%

L15

93%

L20

95%

Over 9.5

PTS-4310

Hit Rate80%

EV-6%

83%

88%

L10

80%

L15

87%

L20

90%

Over 11.5

PTS-2240

Hit Rate60%

EV-9%

50%

63%

L10

60%

L15

67%

L20

75%

Over 14.5

PTS+1020

Hit Rate20%

EV-13%

17%

13%

L10

20%

L15

40%

L20

55%

Over 19.5

PTS+3630

Hit Rate0%

EV-18%

L10

L15

20%

L20

25%

Over 17.5

PTS+2170

Hit Rate0%

EV-17%

L10

L15

27%

L20

35%

Under 15.5

PtsAst-1170

Hit Rate70%

EV-6%

67%

75%

L10

70%

L15

53%

L20

45%

Over 19.5

PtsAst+2400

Hit Rate0%

EV-17%

L10

L15

20%

L20

25%

Over 15.5

PtsAst-1120

Hit Rate30%

EV-6%

33%

25%

L10

30%

L15

47%

L20

55%

Over 14.5

PtsAst-1470

Hit Rate50%

EV-11%

33%

50%

L10

50%

L15

60%

L20

70%

Over 9.5

PtsAst-7100

Hit Rate80%

EV-4%

83%

88%

L10

80%

L15

87%

L20

90%

Over 14.5

PtsReb-9100

Hit Rate90%

EV-3%

83%

88%

L10

90%

L15

93%

L20

95%

Over 19.5

PtsReb-2140

Hit Rate50%

EV-9%

67%

50%

L10

50%

L15

60%

L20

70%

Over 22.5

PtsReb-1090

Hit Rate30%

EV-6%

33%

25%

L10

30%

L15

47%

L20

60%

Over 24.5

PtsReb+1410

Hit Rate30%

EV-15%

33%

25%

L10

30%

L15

47%

L20

55%

Over 29.5

PtsReb+3960

Hit Rate0%

EV-18%

L10

L15

20%

L20

20%

Under 22.5

PtsReb-1210

Hit Rate70%

EV-6%

67%

75%

L10

70%

L15

53%

L20

40%

Over 29.5

PtsRebAst+2870

Hit Rate10%

EV-17%

17%

13%

L10

10%

L15

27%

L20

25%

Under 23.5

PtsRebAst-1090

Pinnacle no-vig 47.2% vs DraftKings implied 52.2% at -109 → -9.5% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate70%

EV-10%

67%

75%

L10

70%

L15

53%

L20

45%

Over 24.5

PtsRebAst+1020

Hit Rate30%

EV-13%

33%

25%

L10

30%

L15

47%

L20

55%

Over 23.5

PtsRebAst-1210

Pinnacle no-vig 52.8% vs DraftKings implied 54.8% at -121 → -3.5% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate30%

EV-4%

33%

25%

L10

30%

L15

47%

L20

55%

Over 19.5

PtsRebAst-3030

Hit Rate60%

EV-8%

83%

63%

L10

60%

L15

67%

L20

75%

Over 7.5

REB-1520

Hit Rate60%

EV-11%

67%

50%

L10

60%

L15

67%

L20

65%

Over 10.5

REB+2810

Hit Rate30%

EV-17%

50%

38%

L10

30%

L15

33%

L20

30%

Over 11.5

REB+4320

Hit Rate10%

EV-18%

17%

13%

L10

10%

L15

20%

L20

20%

Over 6.5

REB-2610

Hit Rate70%

EV-8%

83%

63%

L10

70%

L15

80%

L20

85%

Over 5.5

REB-4800

Hit Rate70%

EV-6%

83%

63%

L10

70%

L15

80%

L20

85%

Over 8.5

REB+1100

Pinnacle no-vig 47.2% vs DraftKings implied 47.6% at +110 → -0.9% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate50%

EV-1%

67%

50%

L10

50%

L15

60%

L20

55%

Under 8.5

REB-1440

Pinnacle no-vig 52.8% vs DraftKings implied 59.0% at -144 → -10.5% expected value on the price.

Hit Rate50%

EV-11%

33%

50%

L10

50%

L15

40%

L20

45%

Over 9.5

REB+1740

Hit Rate30%

EV-16%

50%

38%

L10

30%

L15

33%

L20

35%

Over 0.5

STL-1970

Hit Rate60%

EV-10%

67%

50%

L10

60%

L15

67%

L20

65%

Over 1.5

STL+2390

Hit Rate10%

EV-17%

17%

13%

L10

10%

L15

20%

L20

30%

Over 1.5

StlBlk-4250

Hit Rate60%

EV-6%

83%

63%

L10

60%

L15

67%

L20

75%

Over 2.5

StlBlk-1450

Hit Rate50%

EV-11%

67%

50%

L10

50%

L15

53%

L20

65%

Over 3.5

StlBlk+1650

Hit Rate30%

EV-16%

50%

38%

L10

30%

L15

33%

L20

50%

Over 4.5

StlBlk+3600

Hit Rate10%

EV-18%

17%

13%

L10

10%

L15

13%

L20

15%

Prop Correlations

How often props hit together in the last 20 games — useful for parlays

O 7.5 Ast+Reb

16/20 hit

80%

both hit

O 6.5 Rebounds

17/20 hit

O 19.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

15/20 hit

75%

both hit

O 6.5 Rebounds

17/20 hit

O 7.5 Ast+Reb

16/20 hit

70%

both hit

O 19.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

15/20 hit

O 19.5 Pts+Reb

14/20 hit

70%

both hit

O 19.5 Pts+Reb+Ast

15/20 hit

O 19.5 Pts+Reb

14/20 hit

70%

both hit

O 6.5 Rebounds

17/20 hit

O 6.5 Rebounds

17/20 hit

70%

both hit

O 1.5 StlBlk

15/20 hit

O 7.5 Ast+Reb

16/20 hit

65%

both hit

O 19.5 Pts+Reb

14/20 hit

O 7.5 Ast+Reb

16/20 hit

65%

both hit

O 1.5 StlBlk

15/20 hit

O 1.5 Blocks

13/20 hit

65%

both hit

O 1.5 StlBlk

15/20 hit

O 11.5 Points

15/20 hit

65%

both hit

O 19.5 Pts+Reb

14/20 hit

Props that co-hit frequently may be correlated through playing time or game script — consider pairing them in parlays.

vs LAC History

30.0Avg PTS

14.0Avg REB

5.0Avg AST

Date	W/L	PTS	REB	AST	MIN
Apr 8	W	30	14	5	31

Recent Game Log

Date	Matchup	W/L	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	3PM	TOV	FG
Oct 22	OKC vs. DEN	W	28	12	17	2	1	4	0	3	5/9
Oct 20	OKC @ SAS	W	31	14	7	2	0	4	0	1	3/8
May 30	OKC vs. SAS	L	33	4	4	0	2	2	0	2	1/2
May 28	OKC @ SAS	L	24	10	11	1	1	2	0	0	4/8
May 26	OKC vs. SAS	W	30	16	11	1	1	1	0	3	6/9
May 24	OKC @ SAS	L	26	10	9	2	0	1	0	3	3/8
May 22	OKC @ SAS	W	28	14	3	1	0	0	1	0	5/7
May 20	OKC vs. SAS	W	27	13	4	2	0	0	0	1	5/10
May 18	OKC vs. SAS	L	41	8	8	0	1	2	2	1	2/7
May 11	OKC @ LAL	W	35	16	9	0	1	0	0	1	6/9
May 9	OKC @ LAL	W	31	18	9	1	0	1	0	1	9/14
May 7	OKC vs. LAL	W	33	22	9	3	4	2	3	2	7/11
May 5	OKC vs. LAL	W	31	24	12	1	1	3	2	0	9/17
Apr 27	OKC @ PHX	W	34	24	12	3	2	0	2	2	9/16
Apr 25	OKC @ PHX	W	29	10	7	2	1	2	0	0	5/6
Apr 22	OKC vs. PHX	W	32	19	8	0	0	4	3	3	7/12
Apr 19	OKC vs. PHX	W	25	16	7	0	2	2	2	1	5/10
Apr 8	OKC @ LAC	W	31	30	14	5	2	4	3	2	10/13
Apr 7	OKC @ LAL	W	22	15	10	0	2	2	1	2	6/10
Apr 5	OKC vs. UTA	W	22	21	7	1	0	4	4	1	8/11

Date	Matchup	W/L	PTS	REB	AST	3PM
Oct 22	OKC vs. DEN	W	12	17	2	0
Oct 20	OKC @ SAS	W	14	7	2	0
May 30	OKC vs. SAS	L	4	4	0	0
May 28	OKC @ SAS	L	10	11	1	0
May 26	OKC vs. SAS	W	16	11	1	0
May 24	OKC @ SAS	L	10	9	2	0
May 22	OKC @ SAS	W	14	3	1	1
May 20	OKC vs. SAS	W	13	4	2	0
May 18	OKC vs. SAS	L	8	8	0	2
May 11	OKC @ LAL	W	16	9	0	0
May 9	OKC @ LAL	W	18	9	1	0
May 7	OKC vs. LAL	W	22	9	3	3
May 5	OKC vs. LAL	W	24	12	1	2
Apr 27	OKC @ PHX	W	24	12	3	2
Apr 25	OKC @ PHX	W	10	7	2	0
Apr 22	OKC vs. PHX	W	19	8	0	3
Apr 19	OKC vs. PHX	W	16	7	0	2
Apr 8	OKC @ LAC	W	30	14	5	3
Apr 7	OKC @ LAL	W	15	10	0	1
Apr 5	OKC vs. UTA	W	21	7	1	4