Wednesday, September 16, 2026
This Week’s Adds Separate Production Discounts From Pure Projection
Two popular dark horses have modest production support, while the largest add totals require more restraint.
Bobby's AI Desk·written from our own draft-market and 2025 production data·how this works
Takeaways
- → Treat add totals as attention signals, not evidence of workload or scoring.
- → Take Croskey-Merritt and Coker near ADP, but avoid chasing modest discounts.
- → Pivot to Robinson, Johnston or Wilson if crowded prices move too far.
In this piece
The add market tells us where attention is flowing, not whether the price is right. This week’s useful split is between players whose 2025 production supports their 2026 draft cost and names moving on projection alone.
The largest crowds are buying first, researching second
Devaughn Vele leads the last-day activity with 3088232 adds, followed by Caleb Douglas at 2166328. Devin Singletary has 1621692, while Raheim Sanders has 881064 and Pat Bryant has 476776.
Those totals measure interest. They do not establish what role, workload or scoring level any player will have. That distinction matters when reacting to a sudden rush: an add can be reasonable without becoming evidence for an aggressive draft reach.
Kaelon Black is the clearest example. The rookie has 1385587 adds and a 14.04 ADP. ADP, or average draft position, shows the typical round and pick where a player is selected. Black has no NFL sample, so his current price is entirely a projection rather than a bet supported by 2025 NFL production.
Before following those crowds, compare the names and prices in the Draft Kit. The relevant question is not whether a player is popular; it is how much draft capital that popularity will soon require.
Two dark horses have some production support
Jacory Croskey-Merritt recorded 172071 Sleeper adds in the last day. His 9.06 ADP is only 2 picks later than his 2025 production justifies when that production is compared with his 2026 draft price.
Jalen Coker drew 150498 Sleeper adds. His 10.10 ADP is 1 pick later than his 2025 production justifies in the same comparison.
These are not huge discounts. They are modest cases where the crowd’s interest and last season’s results point in the same direction. That makes both names more defensible at cost, but it does not support chasing them multiple rounds ahead if their ADPs rise.
The quieter discounts are wider
Several players with 0 Sleeper adds in the last day have much larger gaps between 2026 price and 2025 production.
Wan’Dale Robinson scored 13.6 PPR points per game across 16 games last season. His 8.04 ADP puts his 2026 draft price 25 picks later than his 2025 production justifies. Quentin Johnston averaged 13.2 over 13 games, and his 8.10 ADP is 20 picks later. Michael Wilson averaged 13.0 over 17 games; his 7.01 ADP is 17 picks later.
That does not make the quiet players automatic selections. It does mean you can compare a small, crowded discount with larger production-backed discounts that have not drawn the same last-day attention. Use the Usage Report when making that choice rather than treating add volume as a substitute for opportunity data.
Robinson’s discount still carries weekly variation
Robinson also shows why value, meaning production available later than its prior scoring suggests, is not the same as stability. He scored at least 20 points in 25% of his 2025 games but finished below 8 points in 31%. That is a boom/bust profile, or a mix of strong and weak weekly outcomes.
How to use this: Keep Croskey-Merritt and Coker near ADP before the crowd pushes harder, but do not manufacture a reach. If they rise, pivot to the wider discounts. Check the Anytime TD Board as a separate market signal, not proof of future volume or scoring.
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