Updated daily

NBA Award races

Who leads each award on the numbers — a simple formula we publish, computed from every game log, with each player's components shown.

Our stat race — not a prediction of voting. No voter data, no betting odds.

Not startedStarts after opening night (Oct 20, 2026). The race opens once teams have played 3 games.

MVP race

Most Valuable Player · Stat race index

The formula

Game Score (John Hollinger) per game = PTS + 0.4 FGM − 0.7 FGA − 0.4 (FTA − FTM) + 0.7 OREB + 0.3 DREB + STL + 0.7 AST + 0.7 BLK − 0.4 PF − TOV. Race index = average Game Score × (0.5 + team win %).

Eligible: On pace for the NBA's 65-game award rule: played at least 65/82 of his team's games so far.

Check on 2024-25 (the season in our logs with a known winner): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished #1 on this index. One season is a sanity check, not proof.

2024-25 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander#1

Same formula, full regular season, from our own logs. Winners are the official award winners; this measures how well the index tracks them, it does not forecast voting.

Starts after opening night (Oct 20, 2026). The race opens once teams have played 3 games.

Rookie race

Rookie of the Year · Stat race index

The formula

Game Score (John Hollinger) per game = PTS + 0.4 FGM − 0.7 FGA − 0.4 (FTA − FTM) + 0.7 OREB + 0.3 DREB + STL + 0.7 AST + 0.7 BLK − 0.4 PF − TOV. Race index = average Game Score × share of team games played (missed games pull it down).

Eligible: Rookies only (NBA.com lists 2026 as first season, 0 years of experience, and no earlier game in our logs). Played at least half of his team's games.

Check on 2024-25 (the season in our logs with a known winner): Stephon Castle finished #1 on this index. One season is a sanity check, not proof.

2024-25 Stephon Castle#1

Same formula, full regular season, from our own logs. Winners are the official award winners; this measures how well the index tracks them, it does not forecast voting.

Starts after opening night (Oct 20, 2026). The race opens once teams have played 3 games.

How to read this

Each race is one formula, written out above it. Every input is a stat from our game logs; team record comes from the same season's final scores.
It ranks production — it doesn't know about narratives, voter fatigue or injuries that haven't happened yet. It is not a probability of winning the award, and we don't use betting odds here.

Source: NBA.com box-score game logs (nba2026_gamelogs), regular season; team record counted from the same logs. Built Oct 16, 5:57 PM ET.