Bobby'sSports Analytics

Updated daily

NFL Award races

Who leads each award on the numbers — a simple formula we publish, computed from every game log, with each player's components shown.

Our stat race — not a prediction of voting. No voter data, no betting odds.

Live raceThrough Week 5 · ▲/▼ = places moved since Week 4

MVP race

Most Valuable Player · Stat race index

The formula

Production = pass yds ÷ 25 + 4 × pass TD − 2 × INT + rush yds ÷ 10 + 6 × rush TD + rec yds ÷ 10 + 6 × rec TD (season total). Race index = Production ÷ team games played × (0.5 + team win %). A 0.500 team leaves production unchanged; a 12-5 team adds 21%.

Eligible: Played in at least 60% of his team's games. All positions — the formula itself favours QBs, as voters do.

Past winners on this index (full regular season): #1 in 3 of 9, top 3 in 8, top 5 in 9.
  • 2016 Matt Ryan#2 (led: Aaron Rodgers)
  • 2017 Tom Brady#1
  • 2018 Patrick Mahomes#1
  • 2019 Lamar Jackson#1
  • 2020 Aaron Rodgers#3 (led: Josh Allen)
  • 2021 Aaron Rodgers#4 (led: Tom Brady)
  • 2022 Patrick Mahomes#2 (led: Josh Allen)
  • 2023 Lamar Jackson#2 (led: Josh Allen)
  • 2024 Josh Allen#2 (led: Lamar Jackson)

Same formula, full regular season, from our own logs. Winners are the official award winners; this measures how well the index tracks them, it does not forecast voting.

  1. 1▲2Josh AllenJosh AllenBUF · QB · 5 GPTeam 4-1 · Pass yds 1,249 · Pass TD 7 · INT 4 · Rush yds 239 · Rush TD 8 · Rec yds 1 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 28.3936.91Race index
  2. 2–Kenneth Walker IIIKenneth Walker IIIKC · RB · 4 GPTeam 4-0 · Pass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 537 · Rush TD 4 · Rec yds 84 · Rec TD 2 · Prod/team G 24.5336.79Race index
  3. 3▼2Brock PurdyBrock PurdySF · QB · 5 GPTeam 5-0 · Pass yds 1,196 · Pass TD 13 · INT 2 · Rush yds 128 · Rush TD 1 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 22.9334.39Race index
  4. 4–Patrick MahomesPatrick MahomesKC · QB · 4 GPTeam 4-0 · Pass yds 1,037 · Pass TD 9 · INT 2 · Rush yds 41 · Rush TD 1 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 20.8931.34Race index
  5. 5▲4Jahmyr GibbsJahmyr GibbsDET · RB · 5 GPTeam 3-2 · Pass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 504 · Rush TD 7 · Rec yds 243 · Rec TD 2 · Prod/team G 25.7428.31Race index
  6. 6–Derrick HenryDerrick HenryBAL · RB · 5 GPTeam 4-1 · Pass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 476 · Rush TD 7 · Rec yds 62 · Rec TD 1 · Prod/team G 20.3626.47Race index
  7. 7▲6Jared GoffJared GoffDET · QB · 5 GPTeam 3-2 · Pass yds 1,485 · Pass TD 12 · INT 0 · Rush yds 16 · Rush TD 1 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 2325.3Race index
  8. 8▲9Joe BurrowJoe BurrowCIN · QB · 5 GPTeam 3-2 · Pass yds 1,361 · Pass TD 11 · INT 3 · Rush yds 48 · Rush TD 1 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 20.6522.71Race index
  9. 9▲2Bryce YoungBryce YoungCAR · QB · 4 GPTeam 2-2 · Pass yds 1,268 · Pass TD 9 · INT 2 · Rush yds 19 · Rush TD 1 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 22.6622.66Race index
  10. 10▲5Trevor LawrenceTrevor LawrenceJAX · QB · 5 GPTeam 4-1 · Pass yds 1,174 · Pass TD 10 · INT 3 · Rush yds 59 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 17.3722.58Race index
Show 15 more
  1. 11▼6Jaxon Smith-NjigbaJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR · 5 GPTeam 3-2 · Pass yds 14 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 16 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 583 · Rec TD 7 · Prod/team G 20.4922.54Race index
  2. 12▲7James CookJames CookBUF · RB · 5 GPTeam 4-1 · Pass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 532 · Rush TD 5 · Rec yds 31 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 17.2622.44Race index
  3. 13▼1Christian McCaffreyChristian McCaffreySF · RB · 5 GPTeam 5-0 · Pass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 286 · Rush TD 5 · Rec yds 137 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 14.4621.69Race index
  4. 14▼7Lamar JacksonLamar JacksonBAL · QB · 4 GPTeam 4-1 · Pass yds 967 · Pass TD 6 · INT 1 · Rush yds 144 · Rush TD 1 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 16.2221.08Race index
  5. 15▼7Kirk CousinsKirk CousinsLV · QB · 5 GPTeam 3-2 · Pass yds 1,269 · Pass TD 12 · INT 4 · Rush yds -2 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 18.1119.92Race index
  6. 16NewJordan LoveJordan LoveGB · QB · 5 GPTeam 3-2 · Pass yds 1,408 · Pass TD 10 · INT 3 · Rush yds -2 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 18.0219.83Race index
  7. 17NewDrake MayeDrake MayeNE · QB · 5 GPTeam 3-2 · Pass yds 1,228 · Pass TD 8 · INT 7 · Rush yds 161 · Rush TD 1 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 17.8419.63Race index
  8. 18▼8Bijan RobinsonBijan RobinsonATL · RB · 5 GPTeam 2-3 · Pass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 580 · Rush TD 4 · Rec yds 152 · Rec TD 1 · Prod/team G 20.6418.58Race index
  9. 19NewChristian WatsonChristian WatsonGB · WR · 5 GPTeam 3-2 · Pass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 0 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 474 · Rec TD 6 · Prod/team G 16.6818.35Race index
  10. 20NewAaron RodgersAaron RodgersPIT · QB · 5 GPTeam 3-2 · Pass yds 1,234 · Pass TD 10 · INT 4 · Rush yds 18 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 16.6318.3Race index
  11. 21NewAaron JonesAaron JonesMIN · RB · 5 GPTeam 5-0 · Pass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 410 · Rush TD 2 · Rec yds 72 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 12.0418.06Race index
  12. 22▼8Deshaun WatsonDeshaun WatsonCLE · QB · 5 GPTeam 3-2 · Pass yds 1,010 · Pass TD 7 · INT 2 · Rush yds 167 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 16.2217.84Race index
  13. 23▲1Chuba HubbardChuba HubbardCAR · RB · 4 GPTeam 2-2 · Pass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 306 · Rush TD 3 · Rec yds 84 · Rec TD 2 · Prod/team G 17.2517.25Race index
  14. 24NewJaylen WarrenJaylen WarrenPIT · RB · 5 GPTeam 3-2 · Pass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 410 · Rush TD 1 · Rec yds 230 · Rec TD 1 · Prod/team G 15.216.72Race index
  15. 25▼9Dak PrescottDak PrescottDAL · QB · 5 GPTeam 2-3 · Pass yds 1,381 · Pass TD 9 · INT 3 · Rush yds 66 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 18.3716.53Race index

Offensive Rookie race

Offensive Rookie of the Year · Stat race index

The formula

Production = pass yds ÷ 25 + 4 × pass TD − 2 × INT + rush yds ÷ 10 + 6 × rush TD + rec yds ÷ 10 + 6 × rec TD (season total). Race index = Production ÷ team games played (games missed count as zero). No team-record factor.

Eligible: Rookies only: listed with 0 years of experience on the 2026 roster and no NFL game in our logs before 2026.

Past winners on this index (full regular season): #1 in 5 of 9, top 3 in 8, top 5 in 8.
  • 2016 Dak Prescott#2 (led: Ezekiel Elliott)
  • 2017 Alvin Kamara#2 (led: Kareem Hunt)
  • 2018 Saquon Barkley#1
  • 2019 Kyler Murray#1
  • 2020 Justin Herbert#1
  • 2021 Ja'Marr Chase#3 (led: Mac Jones)
  • 2022 Garrett Wilson#6 (led: Kenneth Walker III)
  • 2023 C.J. Stroud#1
  • 2024 Jayden Daniels#1

Same formula, full regular season, from our own logs. Winners are the official award winners; this measures how well the index tracks them, it does not forecast voting.

  1. 1–Denzel BostonDenzel BostonCLE · WR · 5 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 0 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 330 · Rec TD 3 · Prod/team G 10.2 · Team 3-210.2Race index
  2. 2–Jeremiyah LoveJeremiyah LoveARI · RB · 5 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 245 · Rush TD 1 · Rec yds 36 · Rec TD 1 · Prod/team G 8.02 · Team 1-48.02Race index
  3. 3–Carnell TateCarnell TateTEN · WR · 5 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 0 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 274 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 5.48 · Team 0-55.48Race index
  4. 4–Kenyon SadiqKenyon SadiqNYJ · TE · 5 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 3 · Rush TD 1 · Rec yds 146 · Rec TD 1 · Prod/team G 5.38 · Team 2-35.38Race index
  5. 5▲15Jalon DanielsJalon DanielsTB · QB · 3 GPPass yds 337 · Pass TD 2 · INT 3 · Rush yds 87 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 4.84 · Team 1-44.84Race index
  6. 6▼1Josh CameronJosh CameronJAX · WR · 5 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 0 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 117 · Rec TD 2 · Prod/team G 4.74 · Team 4-14.74Race index
  7. 7▲1Antonio WilliamsAntonio WilliamsWAS · WR · 5 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 0 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 155 · Rec TD 1 · Prod/team G 4.3 · Team 1-3-14.3Race index
  8. 8▼1Malachi FieldsMalachi FieldsNYG · WR · 5 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 0 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 146 · Rec TD 1 · Prod/team G 4.12 · Team 3-1-14.12Race index
  9. 9–Mike Washington Jr.Mike Washington Jr.LV · RB · 5 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 125 · Rush TD 1 · Rec yds 4 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 3.78 · Team 3-23.78Race index
  10. 10▼4Ted Hurst IIITed Hurst IIITB · WR · 4 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 0 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 128 · Rec TD 1 · Prod/team G 3.76 · Team 1-43.76Race index
Show 15 more
  1. 11▲2Emmett JohnsonEmmett JohnsonKC · RB · 4 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 56 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 74 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 3.25 · Team 4-03.25Race index
  2. 12▲7Eli RaridonEli RaridonNE · TE · 4 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 0 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 101 · Rec TD 1 · Prod/team G 3.22 · Team 3-23.22Race index
  3. 13▼3KC ConcepcionKC ConcepcionCLE · WR · 5 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 9 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 149 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 3.16 · Team 3-23.16Race index
  4. 14▼2Dohnte MeyersDohnte MeyersCIN · WR · 5 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 10 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 141 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 3.02 · Team 3-23.02Race index
  5. 15▲7Germie BernardGermie BernardPIT · WR · 4 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 4 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 140 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 2.88 · Team 3-22.88Race index
  6. 16▼1Kaelon BlackKaelon BlackSF · RB · 5 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 136 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 5 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 2.82 · Team 5-02.82Race index
  7. 17▼6Jadarian PriceJadarian PriceSEA · RB · 3 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 119 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 21 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 2.8 · Team 3-22.8Race index
  8. 18▼4Matthew HibnerMatthew HibnerBAL · TE · 3 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 0 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 70 · Rec TD 1 · Prod/team G 2.6 · Team 4-12.6Race index
  9. 19▲2Chris BellChris BellMIA · WR · 5 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 26 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 92 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 2.36 · Team 0-52.36Race index
  10. 20▼4Jonah ColemanJonah ColemanDEN · RB · 2 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 39 · Rush TD 1 · Rec yds 19 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 2.36 · Team 3-22.36Race index
  11. 21▼4Caleb DouglasCaleb DouglasMIA · WR · 2 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 0 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 113 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 2.26 · Team 0-52.26Race index
  12. 22▼4Athan KaliakmanisAthan KaliakmanisWAS · QB · 1 GPPass yds 186 · Pass TD 1 · INT 1 · Rush yds 16 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 0 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 2.21 · Team 1-3-12.21Race index
  13. 23–Makai LemonMakai LemonPHI · WR · 5 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds -5 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 108 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 2.06 · Team 2-32.06Race index
  14. 24NewKevin Coleman Jr.Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA · WR · 4 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 0 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 36 · Rec TD 1 · Prod/team G 1.92 · Team 0-51.92Race index
  15. 25–Seth McGowanSeth McGowanIND · RB · 5 GPPass yds 0 · Pass TD 0 · INT 0 · Rush yds 61 · Rush TD 0 · Rec yds 10 · Rec TD 0 · Prod/team G 1.42 · Team 2-31.42Race index

How to read this

  • Each race is one formula, written out above it. Every input is a stat from our game logs; team record comes from the same season's final scores.
  • It ranks production — it doesn't know about narratives, voter fatigue or injuries that haven't happened yet. It is not a probability of winning the award, and we don't use betting odds here.
  • ▲/▼ show places moved since the previous weekly snapshot; “New” means the player wasn't in last week's top 25.
  • Not covered: Defensive Player / Defensive Rookie — our game logs have no defensive stats (tackles, sacks, INTs made).
  • Not covered: Comeback Player — depends on a prior injury/absence story we can't score from stats.

Source: nflverse game logs (nfl_gamelogs, regular season) + final scores from nfl_schedule. Built Oct 16, 5:57 PM ET. 1 weekly snapshot archived.