Sunday, September 20 at 1:02 PM EDT
MIN 9 · CHI 3
Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
MIN
+4.5
+180
Total
46.5
CHI
-4.5
-218
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 4.5 sits half a point past 4, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 4.5 — the 4-6 point band. In 1,063 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–52.2%) is taken into account.
- Total 46.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
MIN
24-15-1 ATS · 28-12 SU · 16-24 O/U
15-9-1 ATS as a favorite
CHI
22-16-3 ATS · 20-21 SU · 17-24 O/U
14-6-2 ATS home
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
Chicago Bears open a 4.5-point favorite over Minnesota Vikings — about 69% implied to win outright. The 46.5 total prices it near 26–21.
Minnesota Vikings went 9–8 in 2025 — #18 of 32 by point differential (+0.6/g).
Chicago Bears went 11–6 in 2025 — #16 of 32 by point differential (+1.5/g), but +1.9 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
Chicago Bears face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #1).
2025 team profiles
Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears