Playoff Picture What-If
80 of 272 regular-season games final · Week 6 up next · updated Oct 16, 2:29 PM ET
Pick the winners
Thu, Oct 15 · final
Sun, Oct 18
Sun, Oct 18
Sun, Oct 18
Sun, Oct 18
Sun, Oct 18
Sun, Oct 18
Sun, Oct 18
Sun, Oct 18
Sun, Oct 18
Sun, Oct 18
Sun, Oct 18
Sun, Oct 18
Mon, Oct 19
Percentages are the model's chance for each team to win that game. Tap a team to lock in a win; tap again to undo.
Playoff odds
Simulating… 0%
| Team | Now | Proj. W | Win div. | Playoffs | #1 seed | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BUFEast | 4-1 | … | … | … | … | … |
 MIAEast | 0-5 | … | … | … | … | … |
 NEEast | 3-2 | … | … | … | … | … |
 NYJEast | 2-3 | … | … | … | … | … |
 BALNorth | 4-1 | … | … | … | … | … |
 CINNorth | 3-2 | … | … | … | … | … |
 CLENorth | 3-2 | … | … | … | … | … |
 PITNorth | 3-2 | … | … | … | … | … |
 HOUSouth | 1-4 | … | … | … | … | … |
 INDSouth | 2-3 | … | … | … | … | … |
 JAXSouth | 4-1 | … | … | … | … | … |
 TENSouth | 0-5 | … | … | … | … | … |
 DENWest | 4-2 | … | … | … | … | … |
 KCWest | 4-0 | … | … | … | … | … |
 LACWest | 0-5 | … | … | … | … | … |
 LVWest | 3-2 | … | … | … | … | … |
If the season ended today
AFC
- 1 Kansas City Chiefs4-0
- 2 Baltimore Ravens4-1
- 3 Jacksonville Jaguars4-1
- 4 Buffalo Bills4-1
- 5 Denver Broncos4-2
- 6 New England Patriots3-2
- 7 Las Vegas Raiders3-2
First out: CLE (3-2), PIT (3-2)
NFC
- 1
San Francisco 49ers5-0 - 2
Minnesota Vikings5-0 - 3
New York Giants3-1-1 - 4
Carolina Panthers2-2 - 5
Green Bay Packers3-2 - 6
Chicago Bears3-2 - 7
Detroit Lions3-2
First out: SEA (3-3), LA (2-3)
How it works
1 Team strength from the market. Each team gets a power rating (points per game vs an average team) fit to the pre-kickoff point spreads of 111 games this season, with recent weeks counting more. Home field came out at 1.6 points.
2 Play out the season 5,000 times. Every game you haven't picked is decided at random from the two ratings (game-to-game spread of 13.5 points), and each simulated season also nudges every team's rating by about ±1.6 points — how much the market's view of teams moved over a month this season.
3 Real tiebreakers. Division and wild-card ties use the NFL's steps in order: head-to-head (a sweep for 3+ wild-card teams), division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule. Run on the final 2025 standings, this code reproduces all 14 actual 2025 playoff seeds.
4 Then the playoffs. Four division winners and three wild cards per conference; the 1 seed gets a bye, the top remaining seed plays the lowest after the wild-card round, the higher seed hosts and the Super Bowl is neutral.
Simplified: the points-based tiebreak steps after strength of schedule (rare) become a coin flip; simulated games can't end in a tie (real ties count as half a win); international games are treated as home games for the listed home team. On completed games so far, win chances from the pre-kickoff spreads the ratings are built on scored a log loss of 0.654 vs 0.693 for a coin flip (79 games). Research estimates, not predictions of any single game.