CFB
Where they rank
Team-advanced percentile vs. the FBS field · descriptive only, not a prediction of Saturday.
Illinois
Offensive efficiency (PPA)78th pct.
Offensive success rate88th pct.
Explosiveness63th pct.
Defensive efficiency (PPA)2th pct.
Defensive success rate allowed12th pct.
Havoc rate7th pct.
Michigan State
Offensive efficiency (PPA)14th pct.
Offensive success rate54th pct.
Explosiveness4th pct.
Defensive efficiency (PPA)17th pct.
Defensive success rate allowed30th pct.
Havoc rate23th pct.
Illinois · Returning production
Overall (PPA)21.1%
Passing3.2%
Rushing34.2%
Receiving31.3%
Against the spread, last 3 seasons
ATS 14-7-1 · O/U 8-14 · avg. margin +1.6
Michigan State · Returning production
Overall (PPA)20.9%
Passing16.2%
Rushing18.5%
Receiving24.4%
Against the spread, last 3 seasons
ATS 11-10 · O/U 11-10 · avg. margin -7.6
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings2026Illinois 38–37 Michigan State
2024Michigan State 16–38 Illinois
2022Michigan State 23–15 Illinois
2019Illinois 37–34 Michigan State
2016Michigan State 27–31 Illinois
Venue & conditions
Spartan Stadium · East Lansing, MI
78°F · 12.6 mph wind · 7% precip. chance