BOBBY'SSPORTS ANALYTICS

NBA · Season tips off Tue, Oct 20

2026-27 Season preview

The whole season on one page, all from our own numbers: title chances and seeds from 50,000 simulated seasons, the award races, a breakout pick for every team, the biggest moves and the games worth circling. Each section says how it was built.

What to watch tonight Opening week

Title chances

Simulator →

Share of 50,000 simulated seasons each team wins the title. Team strength = last season's results adjusted for roster changes. Last run Oct 25, 5:30 AM ET.

  1. 1Oklahoma City Thunder logoOKC
    18.1%
  2. 2Portland Trail Blazers logoPOR
    13.0%
  3. 3Detroit Pistons logoDET
    11.0%
  4. 4Toronto Raptors logoTOR
    9.1%
  5. 5Philadelphia 76ers logoPHI
    8.8%
  6. 6Houston Rockets logoHOU
    7.0%
  7. 7San Antonio Spurs logoSAS
    6.0%
  8. 8Minnesota Timberwolves logoMIN
    4.2%
  9. 9Cleveland Cavaliers logoCLE
    4.1%
  10. 10Denver Nuggets logoDEN
    3.9%

Projected seeds

Average wins across the simulated seasons, with each team's chance to make the playoffs (top 6 or through the play-in).

East

#TeamWinsPlayoffsTitle
1Detroit Pistons logoDET52.995.8%11.0%
2Philadelphia 76ers logoPHI52.095.0%8.8%
3Toronto Raptors logoTOR51.493.8%9.1%
4Cleveland Cavaliers logoCLE47.384.5%4.1%
5Atlanta Hawks logoATL47.083.7%2.9%
6Boston Celtics logoBOS46.180.8%3.1%
7New York Knicks logoNYK43.369.9%2.0%
8Charlotte Hornets logoCHA39.851.8%0.6%
9Orlando Magic logoORL39.149.0%0.6%
10Indiana Pacers logoIND35.731.4%0.2%
11Miami Heat logoMIA35.630.5%0.2%
12Washington Wizards logoWAS31.413.9%0.0%
13Brooklyn Nets logoBKN28.88.4%0.0%
14Chicago Bulls logoCHI27.86.0%0.0%
15Milwaukee Bucks logoMIL27.35.5%0.0%

Ordered by projected wins. Lines after 6th and 10th mark the play-in. Range = middle 80% of simulated seasons.

West

#TeamWinsPlayoffsTitle
1Oklahoma City Thunder logoOKC56.797.8%18.1%
2Portland Trail Blazers logoPOR54.395.3%13.0%
3Houston Rockets logoHOU52.091.8%7.0%
4San Antonio Spurs logoSAS49.887.5%6.0%
5Minnesota Timberwolves logoMIN48.683.3%4.2%
6Denver Nuggets logoDEN47.981.1%3.9%
7Los Angeles Lakers logoLAL47.478.8%3.0%
8Phoenix Suns logoPHX42.154.6%0.9%
9Golden State Warriors logoGSW38.838.5%0.5%
10New Orleans Pelicans logoNOP36.426.6%0.3%
11Memphis Grizzlies logoMEM36.325.3%0.1%
12LA Clippers logoLAC33.917.1%0.1%
13Dallas Mavericks logoDAL33.816.4%0.1%
14Utah Jazz logoUTA29.05.8%0.0%
15Sacramento Kings logoSAC17.50.1%0.0%

Ordered by projected wins. Lines after 6th and 10th mark the play-in. Range = middle 80% of simulated seasons.

Award races

All races →

Opening night is in — the race opens once the typical team has played 3 games (now 2). Until then, here is where the MVP race starts.

Our stat race — not a prediction of voting. No voter data, no betting odds.

MVP race · starting grid (2025-26 final)

  1. 1Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderShai Gilgeous-Alexander31.1 PTS · 4.3 REB · 6.6 AST · OKC 78% wins33.8index
  2. 2Nikola JokićNikola Jokić27.7 PTS · 12.9 REB · 10.7 AST · DEN 66% wins33.2index
  3. 3Jamal MurrayJamal Murray25.4 PTS · 4.4 REB · 7.1 AST · DEN 66% wins23.9index
  4. 4Donovan MitchellDonovan Mitchell27.9 PTS · 4.5 REB · 5.7 AST · CLE 63% wins23.8index
  5. 5Jaylen BrownJaylen Brown28.7 PTS · 6.9 REB · 5.1 AST · BOS 68% wins · now PHI23.3index
  6. 6Tyrese MaxeyTyrese Maxey28.3 PTS · 4.1 REB · 6.6 AST · PHI 55% wins23.2index
  7. 7Kawhi LeonardKawhi Leonard27.9 PTS · 6.4 REB · 3.6 AST · LAC 51% wins · now TOR22.8index
  8. 8Jalen DurenJalen Duren19.5 PTS · 10.5 REB · 2.0 AST · DET 73% wins22.6index
  9. 9Kevin DurantKevin Durant26.0 PTS · 5.5 REB · 4.8 AST · HOU 63% wins22.4index
  10. 10James HardenJames Harden23.6 PTS · 4.8 REB · 8.0 AST · CLE 63% wins21.7index

Same formula as our live MVP race: average Game Score × (0.5 + team win %), for players who played at least 65 of 82 games. Team win % is for the team he finished 2025-26 with. The Rookie race opens with the MVP race; 2026 rookies have no NBA games in our logs yet.

One breakout pick per team

Breakout pick = the player on each current roster, entering his 2nd to 5th NBA season, who improved most from the first half of 2025-26 to the second half (games before vs after Jan 15, 2026), measured by Game Score per game. He needs 10+ games in each half, 18+ minutes a game after the split and under 30 minutes a game for the season, so established stars are left out. If nobody on a team qualifies, we widen to any experience level with 15+ minutes after the split.

Gui SantosGui SantosGolden State Warriors9.2 PTS · 28.6 MIN after Jan 153.3 → 11.6Game Score / gameJavon SmallJavon SmallMemphis Grizzlies9.7 PTS · 24.2 MIN after Jan 153.4 → 11.5Game Score / gameLeonard MillerLeonard MillerChicago Bulls7.8 PTS · 21.3 MIN after Jan 152.0 → 8.9Game Score / gameDevin CarterDevin CarterBoston Celtics8.9 PTS · 23.0 MIN after Jan 152.3 → 9.0Game Score / gameCody WilliamsCody WilliamsMinnesota Timberwolves8.8 PTS · 30.2 MIN after Jan 153.1 → 8.9Game Score / gameWill RileyWill RileyWashington Wizards10.3 PTS · 28.4 MIN after Jan 154.0 → 9.8Game Score / gameNique CliffordNique CliffordSacramento Kings8.6 PTS · 31.4 MIN after Jan 153.3 → 8.9Game Score / gameJarace WalkerJarace WalkerIndiana Pacers11.6 PTS · 28.8 MIN after Jan 155.9 → 11.4Game Score / gameJulian StrawtherJulian StrawtherDenver Nuggets7.2 PTS · 18.2 MIN after Jan 151.5 → 7.0Game Score / gameIsaiah CollierIsaiah CollierUtah Jazz11.7 PTS · 28.9 MIN after Jan 158.2 → 13.7Game Score / gameNolan TraoreNolan TraoreBrooklyn Nets8.9 PTS · 24.9 MIN after Jan 152.3 → 6.8Game Score / gameRayan RupertRayan RupertPhiladelphia 76ers5.2 PTS · 23.2 MIN after Jan 151.6 → 6.1Game Score / gameMoussa CisséMoussa CisséDallas Mavericks4.5 PTS · 18.6 MIN after Jan 153.4 → 7.6Game Score / gameKasparas JakučionisKasparas JakučionisMilwaukee Bucks6.2 PTS · 19.6 MIN after Jan 152.7 → 6.8Game Score / gameJordan MillerJordan MillerLA Clippers10.0 PTS · 25.0 MIN after Jan 156.0 → 10.0Game Score / gameDylan HarperDylan HarperSan Antonio Spurs11.8 PTS · 23.6 MIN after Jan 157.7 → 11.2Game Score / gamePelle LarssonPelle LarssonMiami Heat11.4 PTS · 29.9 MIN after Jan 157.6 → 11.1Game Score / gameJalen DurenJalen DurenDetroit Pistons19.5 PTS · 28.1 MIN after Jan 1516.5 → 19.8Game Score / gameOso IghodaroOso IghodaroPhoenix Suns6.5 PTS · 24.5 MIN after Jan 155.5 → 8.6Game Score / gameJa'Kobe WalterJa'Kobe WalterToronto Raptors7.5 PTS · 23.4 MIN after Jan 154.7 → 7.7Game Score / gameJaden HardyJaden HardyLos Angeles Lakers9.2 PTS · 19.4 MIN after Jan 153.5 → 6.4Game Score / gameDonovan ClinganDonovan ClinganPortland Trail Blazers12.1 PTS · 27.3 MIN after Jan 1512.5 → 14.9Game Score / gameJaylin WilliamsJaylin WilliamsOklahoma City Thunder7.2 PTS · 20.6 MIN after Jan 155.6 → 7.8Game Score / gameJalen WilsonJalen WilsonAtlanta Hawks6.4 PTS · 18.0 MIN after Jan 152.8 → 4.8Game Score / gameJeremiah FearsJeremiah FearsNew Orleans Pelicans14.3 PTS · 24.6 MIN after Jan 159.2 → 10.5Game Score / gameTristan da SilvaTristan da SilvaOrlando Magic9.9 PTS · 25.9 MIN after Jan 157.2 → 8.3Game Score / gamePeyton WatsonPeyton WatsonCleveland Cavaliers14.6 PTS · 30.2 MIN after Jan 1510.9 → 11.6Game Score / gameReed SheppardReed SheppardHouston Rockets13.5 PTS · 26.8 MIN after Jan 1510.2 → 10.5Game Score / gameMoussa DiabatéMoussa DiabatéCharlotte Hornets7.9 PTS · 27.8 MIN after Jan 1510.2 → 10.3Game Score / game

Biggest roster moves

A player counts as moved when his team in the official NBA player directory today differs from the team he played his last 2025-26 regular-season game for. Ranked by 2025-26 Game Score per game (min. 20 games). 102 players qualify; the top 18 are below.

Giannis AntetokounmpoGiannis Antetokounmpo27.6 PTS · 9.8 REB · 5.4 AST in 36 games (2025-26)Milwaukee Bucks logoMiami Heat logoKawhi LeonardKawhi Leonard27.9 PTS · 6.4 REB · 3.6 AST in 65 games (2025-26)LA Clippers logoToronto Raptors logoJaylen BrownJaylen Brown28.7 PTS · 6.9 REB · 5.1 AST in 71 games (2025-26)Boston Celtics logoPhiladelphia 76ers logoLeBron JamesLeBron James20.9 PTS · 6.1 REB · 7.2 AST in 60 games (2025-26)Los Angeles Lakers logoPhiladelphia 76ers logoAnthony DavisAnthony Davis20.4 PTS · 11.1 REB · 2.8 AST in 20 games (2025-26)Dallas Mavericks logoWashington Wizards logoJulius RandleJulius Randle21.1 PTS · 6.7 REB · 5.0 AST in 79 games (2025-26)Minnesota Timberwolves logoBrooklyn Nets logoBrandon IngramBrandon Ingram21.5 PTS · 5.6 REB · 3.7 AST in 77 games (2025-26)Toronto Raptors logoLA Clippers logoTyler HerroTyler Herro20.5 PTS · 4.8 REB · 4.1 AST in 33 games (2025-26)Miami Heat logoMilwaukee Bucks logoLaMelo BallLaMelo Ball20.1 PTS · 4.8 REB · 7.1 AST in 72 games (2025-26)Charlotte Hornets logoMinnesota Timberwolves logoNorman PowellNorman Powell21.7 PTS · 3.5 REB · 2.5 AST in 58 games (2025-26)Miami Heat logoChicago Bulls logoDeMar DeRozanDeMar DeRozan18.4 PTS · 2.9 REB · 4.1 AST in 77 games (2025-26)Sacramento Kings logoDenver Nuggets logoJa MorantJa Morant19.4 PTS · 3.3 REB · 8.1 AST in 20 games (2025-26)Memphis Grizzlies logoPortland Trail Blazers logoPaul GeorgePaul George17.3 PTS · 5.3 REB · 3.6 AST in 37 games (2025-26)Philadelphia 76ers logoBoston Celtics logoNikola VučevićNikola Vučević15.1 PTS · 8.4 REB · 3.3 AST in 64 games (2025-26)Boston Celtics logoOrlando Magic logoMiles BridgesMiles Bridges17.1 PTS · 5.8 REB · 3.2 AST in 77 games (2025-26)Charlotte Hornets logoPhoenix Suns logoJerami GrantJerami Grant18.6 PTS · 3.5 REB · 2.1 AST in 57 games (2025-26)Portland Trail Blazers logoMemphis Grizzlies logoJaime Jaquez Jr.Jaime Jaquez Jr.15.4 PTS · 5.0 REB · 4.7 AST in 75 games (2025-26)Miami Heat logoMilwaukee Bucks logoSanti AldamaSanti Aldama14.0 PTS · 6.7 REB · 2.9 AST in 43 games (2025-26)Memphis Grizzlies logoDallas Mavericks logo

Games to circle

Games to circle: every regular-season meeting of last season's Finals teams; the first meeting of each 2026 conference finals pairing; the first meeting of any two of the simulator's top three title chances; a star's first game against the team he left (top 8 movers by Game Score); and the Christmas Day slate. Tip times are Eastern.

  1. Tue, Oct 20 · 9:30 PM ET · NBCOklahoma City Thunder logoOKC@San Antonio Spurs logoSASConference finals rematch: SAS won 4-3
  2. Mon, Nov 2 · 10:00 PM ETToronto Raptors logoTOR@LA Clippers logoLACKawhi Leonard faces LAC for the first time since leaving (first trip back) · Brandon Ingram faces TOR for the first time since leaving
  3. Sat, Nov 7 · 8:00 PM ET · NBA TVNew York Knicks logoNYK@Cleveland Cavaliers logoCLEConference finals rematch: NYK won 4-0
  4. Tue, Nov 10 · 8:00 PM ET · NBCBoston Celtics logoBOS@Philadelphia 76ers logoPHIJaylen Brown faces BOS for the first time since leaving
  5. Tue, Nov 10 · 11:00 PM ET · NBCOklahoma City Thunder logoOKC@Portland Trail Blazers logoPORTitle contenders: OKC and POR are top-3 in our simulated title chances
  6. Wed, Nov 18 · 7:00 PM ET · ESPNMilwaukee Bucks logoMIL@Miami Heat logoMIAGiannis Antetokounmpo faces MIL for the first time since leaving · Tyler Herro faces MIA for the first time since leaving (first trip back)
  7. Mon, Nov 23 · 7:30 PM ET · PeacockBrooklyn Nets logoBKN@Minnesota Timberwolves logoMINJulius Randle faces MIN for the first time since leaving (first trip back)
  8. Tue, Dec 22 · 8:00 PM ET · NBCDetroit Pistons logoDET@Oklahoma City Thunder logoOKCTitle contenders: OKC and DET are top-3 in our simulated title chances
  9. Fri, Dec 25 · 12:00 PM ET · ABCSan Antonio Spurs logoSAS@New York Knicks logoNYKFinals rematch: NYK beat SAS 4-1 in June · Christmas Day
  10. Fri, Dec 25 · 2:30 PM ET · ABCMiami Heat logoMIA@Boston Celtics logoBOSChristmas Day
  11. Fri, Dec 25 · 5:00 PM ET · ABCPhiladelphia 76ers logoPHI@Los Angeles Lakers logoLALLeBron James faces LAL for the first time since leaving (first trip back) · Christmas Day
  12. Fri, Dec 25 · 8:00 PM ET · ABCOklahoma City Thunder logoOKC@Minnesota Timberwolves logoMINChristmas Day
  13. Fri, Dec 25 · 10:30 PM ET · ABCDenver Nuggets logoDEN@Golden State Warriors logoGSWChristmas Day
  14. Sun, Dec 27 · 7:00 PM ETPortland Trail Blazers logoPOR@Detroit Pistons logoDETTitle contenders: POR and DET are top-3 in our simulated title chances
  15. Sun, Mar 7 · 7:30 PM ET · TelemundoNew York Knicks logoNYK@San Antonio Spurs logoSASFinals rematch, meeting 2
  16. Thu, Mar 11 · 8:00 PM ETWashington Wizards logoWAS@Dallas Mavericks logoDALAnthony Davis faces DAL for the first time since leaving (first trip back)

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About these numbers. Player numbers are from the 2025-26 regular season box scores in our database; current teams from the official NBA player directory (refreshed daily). Simulated chances are research estimates from our own model, not predictions of any single game or season. Award races are our published stat formulas, not a prediction of voting.