Sunday, September 13 at 4:25 PM EDT
FinalARI 26 · LAC 14Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
ARI
+8.5
+350
Total
47.5
LAC
-8.5
-455
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 8.5 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,279 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 47.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.6% of the time across 1,293 of them.
Last three seasons
ARI
19-20 ATS · 12-27 SU · 21-17 O/U
12-8 ATS away
LAC
22-18-1 ATS · 22-19 SU · 17-24 O/U
12-8 ATS home
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Los Angeles Chargers open a 8.5-point favorite over Arizona Cardinals — about 82% implied to win outright. The 47.5 total prices it near 28–20.
Arizona Cardinals went 3–14 in 2025 — #29 of 32 by point differential (-7.8/g), and were 2.4 wins unlucky versus their margin.
Los Angeles Chargers went 11–6 in 2025 — #13 of 32 by point differential (+1.6/g), but +1.7 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
Arizona Cardinals face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #3).
2025 team profiles
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Chargers