Sunday, October 4 at 1:02 PM EDT
FinalARI 24 · NYG 36Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
ARI
-2.5
-130
Total
43.5
NYG
+2.5
+110
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 2.5 sits half a point short of 3, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 2.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 1,487 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.8% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.3–52.4%) is taken into account.
- Total 43.5 — spread in the 0-3 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 48.7% of the time across 1,480 of them.
Last three seasons
ARI
19-20 ATS · 12-27 SU · 21-17 O/U
12-8 ATS away
NYG
18-21 ATS · 10-29 SU · 20-19 O/U
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Arizona Cardinals open a 2.5-point favorite over New York Giants — about 57% implied to win outright. The 43.5 total prices it near 23–21.
Arizona Cardinals went 3–14 in 2025 — #29 of 32 by point differential (-7.8/g), and were 2.4 wins unlucky versus their margin.
New York Giants went 4–13 in 2025 — #22 of 32 by point differential (-3.4/g), and were 3.1 wins unlucky versus their margin.
Arizona Cardinals face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #3).
2025 team profiles
Arizona Cardinals
New York Giants