Sunday, September 27 at 4:05 PM EDT
FinalARI 30 · SF 36Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
ARI
+7.5
+320
Total
48.5
SF
-7.5
-410
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 7.5 sits half a point past 7, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 7.5 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,279 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 48.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.6% of the time across 1,293 of them.
Last three seasons
ARI
19-20 ATS · 12-27 SU · 21-17 O/U
12-8 ATS away
SF
21-20 ATS · 24-17 SU · 24-16 O/U
17-11 ATS as a favorite
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
San Francisco 49ers open a 7.5-point favorite over Arizona Cardinals — about 80% implied to win outright. The 48.5 total prices it near 28–21, one of the week's higher totals.
Arizona Cardinals went 3–14 in 2025 — #29 of 32 by point differential (-7.8/g), and were 2.4 wins unlucky versus their margin.
San Francisco 49ers went 12–5 in 2025 — #8 of 32 by point differential (+3.9/g), but +1.9 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
Arizona Cardinals face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #3).
2025 team profiles
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers