How games at these numbers have gone

• The key number. 4.5 sits half a point past 4, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
• Spread 4.5 — the 4-6 point band. In 1,063 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–52.2%) is taken into account.
• Total 42.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.

Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.