Monday, October 5 at 8:17 PM EDT
FinalATL 45 · NO 24Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
ATL
+1.5
-102
Total
47.5
NO
-1.5
-118
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 1.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 1,487 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.8% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.3–52.4%) is taken into account.
- Total 47.5 — spread in the 0-3 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 48.7% of the time across 1,480 of them.
Last three seasons
ATL
17-22 ATS · 18-21 SU · 18-21 O/U
NO
18-21 ATS · 12-27 SU · 16-23 O/U
7-13 ATS home
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
New Orleans Saints open a 1.5-point favorite over Atlanta Falcons — about 54% implied to win outright. The 47.5 total prices it near 25–23.
Atlanta Falcons went 8–9 in 2025 — #21 of 32 by point differential (-2.8/g).
New Orleans Saints went 6–11 in 2025 — #26 of 32 by point differential (-4.5/g).
Atlanta Falcons drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #28).
2025 team profiles
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints