Sunday, September 13 at 1:05 PM EDT
FinalBAL 41 · IND 23Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
BAL
-3
-162
Total
48.5
IND
+3
+136
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 3 is one of the numbers NFL games land on most often, so this line can push — and a half-point move off it changes far more games than a half-point anywhere else.
- Spread 3 — the 3-4 point band. In 1,756 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.5% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 48.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
BAL
20-20-1 ATS · 25-16 SU · 28-13 O/U
went over in 28 of 41
IND
21-18 ATS · 18-21 SU · 22-17 O/U
13-9 ATS as an underdog
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Baltimore Ravens open a 3-point favorite over Indianapolis Colts — about 62% implied to win outright. The 48.5 total prices it near 26–23, one of the week's higher totals.
Baltimore Ravens went 8–9 in 2025 — #15 of 32 by point differential (+1.5/g).
Indianapolis Colts went 8–9 in 2025 — #11 of 32 by point differential (+3.2/g), and were 1.7 wins unlucky versus their margin.
Indianapolis Colts drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #29).
2025 team profiles
Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts