Sunday, September 13 at 1:04 PM EDT
FinalBUF 36 · HOU 31Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
BUF
-1.5
-112
Total
44.5
HOU
+1.5
-108
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 1.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 1,487 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.8% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.3–52.4%) is taken into account.
- Total 44.5 — spread in the 0-3 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 48.7% of the time across 1,480 of them.
Last three seasons
BUF
25-19 ATS · 32-12 SU · 27-16 O/U
went over in 27 of 43
HOU
20-22-1 ATS · 25-18 SU · 16-26 O/U
went under in 26 of 42
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Buffalo Bills open a 1.5-point favorite over Houston Texans — about 53% implied to win outright. The 44.5 total prices it near 23–22.
Buffalo Bills went 12–5 in 2025 — #6 of 32 by point differential (+6.8/g).
Houston Texans went 12–5 in 2025 — #5 of 32 by point differential (+6.4/g).
2025 team profiles
Buffalo Bills
Houston Texans