Sunday, October 11 at 1:05 PM EDT
FinalCHI 7 · GB 31Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
CHI
-1.5
-125
Total
46.5
GB
+1.5
+105
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 1.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 1,487 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.8% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.3–52.4%) is taken into account.
- Total 46.5 — spread in the 0-3 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 48.7% of the time across 1,480 of them.
Last three seasons
CHI
22-16-3 ATS · 20-21 SU · 17-24 O/U
14-6-2 ATS home
GB
15-24-2 ATS · 23-18 SU · 20-20 O/U
5-15-2 ATS away
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Chicago Bears open a 1.5-point favorite over Green Bay Packers — about 56% implied to win outright. The 46.5 total prices it near 24–23.
Chicago Bears went 11–6 in 2025 — #16 of 32 by point differential (+1.5/g), but +1.9 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
Green Bay Packers went 9–7 in 2025 — #14 of 32 by point differential (+1.8/g).
Chicago Bears face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #1).
2025 team profiles
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers