Sunday, October 11 at 1:05 PM EDT
FinalCIN 31 · MIA 24Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
CIN
-7
-345
Total
44.5
MIA
+7
+275
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 7 is one of the numbers NFL games land on most often, so this line can push — and a half-point move off it changes far more games than a half-point anywhere else.
- Spread 7 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,279 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 44.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.6% of the time across 1,293 of them.
Last three seasons
CIN
20-18-1 ATS · 18-21 SU · 23-16 O/U
went over in 23 of 39
MIA
16-22-1 ATS · 15-24 SU · 20-19 O/U
9-14-1 ATS as an underdog
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Cincinnati Bengals open a 7-point favorite over Miami Dolphins — about 78% implied to win outright. The 44.5 total prices it near 26–19.
Cincinnati Bengals went 6–11 in 2025 — #23 of 32 by point differential (-4.6/g).
Miami Dolphins went 7–10 in 2025 — #24 of 32 by point differential (-4.5/g).
Cincinnati Bengals drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #30).
2025 team profiles
Cincinnati Bengals
Miami Dolphins