Sunday, October 11 at 1:05 PM EDT
FinalCLE 12 · NYJ 17Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
CLE
+3
+124
Total
38.5
NYJ
-3
-148
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 3 is one of the numbers NFL games land on most often, so this line can push — and a half-point move off it changes far more games than a half-point anywhere else.
- Spread 3 — the 3-4 point band. In 1,756 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.5% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 38.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
CLE
15-24 ATS · 11-28 SU · 18-21 O/U
5-15 ATS away
NYJ
16-22-1 ATS · 10-29 SU · 22-17 O/U
10-14-1 ATS as an underdog
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
New York Jets open a 3-point favorite over Cleveland Browns — about 60% implied to win outright. The 38.5 total prices it near 21–18, a low-scoring script.
Cleveland Browns went 5–12 in 2025 — #28 of 32 by point differential (-5.9/g).
New York Jets went 3–14 in 2025 — #30 of 32 by point differential (-11.9/g).
Cleveland Browns drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #32).
2025 team profiles
Cleveland Browns
New York Jets