Sunday, September 20 at 1:02 PM EDT
FinalCLE 23 · TB 19Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
CLE
+8.5
+330
Total
41.5
TB
-8.5
-425
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 8.5 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,279 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 41.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.6% of the time across 1,293 of them.
Last three seasons
CLE
15-24 ATS · 11-28 SU · 18-21 O/U
5-15 ATS away
TB
16-23-1 ATS · 19-21 SU · 22-18 O/U
6-14-1 ATS home
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Tampa Bay Buccaneers open a 8.5-point favorite over Cleveland Browns — about 81% implied to win outright. The 41.5 total prices it near 25–17.
Cleveland Browns went 5–12 in 2025 — #28 of 32 by point differential (-5.9/g).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8–9 in 2025 — #20 of 32 by point differential (-1.8/g).
Cleveland Browns drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #32).
2025 team profiles
Cleveland Browns
Tampa Bay Buccaneers