Sunday, October 11 at 4:08 PM EDT
FinalDEN 23 · LAC 17Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
DEN
-3.5
-180
Total
42.5
LAC
+3.5
+150
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 3.5 sits half a point past 3, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 3.5 — the 3-4 point band. In 1,756 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.5% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 42.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
DEN
24-18 ATS · 28-14 SU · 20-22 O/U
15-6 ATS home
LAC
22-18-1 ATS · 22-19 SU · 17-24 O/U
12-8 ATS home
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Denver Broncos open a 3.5-point favorite over Los Angeles Chargers — about 64% implied to win outright. The 42.5 total prices it near 23–20.
Denver Broncos went 14–3 in 2025 — #7 of 32 by point differential (+5.3/g), but +3.0 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
Los Angeles Chargers went 11–6 in 2025 — #13 of 32 by point differential (+1.6/g), but +1.7 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
2025 team profiles
Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers