Sunday, October 4 at 4:25 PM EDT
FinalDEN 14 · SF 24Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
DEN
+3
+140
Total
48.5
SF
-3
-166
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 3 is one of the numbers NFL games land on most often, so this line can push — and a half-point move off it changes far more games than a half-point anywhere else.
- Spread 3 — the 3-4 point band. In 1,756 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.5% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 48.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
DEN
24-18 ATS · 28-14 SU · 20-22 O/U
15-6 ATS home
SF
21-20 ATS · 24-17 SU · 24-16 O/U
17-11 ATS as a favorite
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
San Francisco 49ers open a 3-point favorite over Denver Broncos — about 62% implied to win outright. The 48.5 total prices it near 26–23, one of the week's higher totals.
Denver Broncos went 14–3 in 2025 — #7 of 32 by point differential (+5.3/g), but +3.0 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
San Francisco 49ers went 12–5 in 2025 — #8 of 32 by point differential (+3.9/g), but +1.9 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
2025 team profiles
Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers