Sunday, September 27 at 1:03 PM EDT
FinalHOU 17 · IND 19Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
HOU
-1.5
-122
Total
41.5
IND
+1.5
+102
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 1.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 1,487 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.8% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.3–52.4%) is taken into account.
- Total 41.5 — spread in the 0-3 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 48.7% of the time across 1,480 of them.
Last three seasons
HOU
20-22-1 ATS · 25-18 SU · 16-26 O/U
went under in 26 of 42
IND
21-18 ATS · 18-21 SU · 22-17 O/U
13-9 ATS as an underdog
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Houston Texans open a 1.5-point favorite over Indianapolis Colts — about 55% implied to win outright. The 41.5 total prices it near 22–20.
Houston Texans went 12–5 in 2025 — #5 of 32 by point differential (+6.4/g).
Indianapolis Colts went 8–9 in 2025 — #11 of 32 by point differential (+3.2/g), and were 1.7 wins unlucky versus their margin.
Indianapolis Colts drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #29).
2025 team profiles
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts