Sunday, October 4 at 9:32 AM EDT
FinalIND 30 · WAS 13Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
IND
-4.5
-230
Total
46.5
WAS
+4.5
+190
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 4.5 sits half a point past 4, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 4.5 — the 4-6 point band. In 1,063 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–52.2%) is taken into account.
- Total 46.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
IND
21-18 ATS · 18-21 SU · 22-17 O/U
13-9 ATS as an underdog
WAS
21-21 ATS · 20-22 SU · 27-15 O/U
went over in 27 of 42
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Indianapolis Colts open a 4.5-point favorite over Washington Commanders — about 70% implied to win outright. The 46.5 total prices it near 26–21.
Indianapolis Colts went 8–9 in 2025 — #11 of 32 by point differential (+3.2/g), and were 1.7 wins unlucky versus their margin.
Washington Commanders went 5–12 in 2025 — #27 of 32 by point differential (-5.6/g).
Indianapolis Colts drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #29).
2025 team profiles
Indianapolis Colts
Washington Commanders