Sunday, October 4 at 1:02 PM EDT
FinalLA 24 · PHI 20Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
LA
-3.5
-198
Total
42.5
PHI
+3.5
+164
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 3.5 sits half a point past 3, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 3.5 — the 3-4 point band. In 1,756 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.5% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 42.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
LA
25-19 ATS · 27-17 SU · 24-20 O/U
17-12 ATS as a favorite
PHI
25-19 ATS · 31-13 SU · 20-24 O/U
13-7 ATS away
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Los Angeles Rams open a 3.5-point favorite over Philadelphia Eagles — about 66% implied to win outright. The 42.5 total prices it near 23–20.
Los Angeles Rams went 12–5 in 2025 — #3 of 32 by point differential (+10.1/g).
Philadelphia Eagles went 11–6 in 2025 — #9 of 32 by point differential (+3.2/g).
2025 team profiles
Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia Eagles