Bobby'sSports Analytics
All matchups
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
KC

Sunday, October 18 at 4:25 PM EDT

LAC

+7.5

+340

Total

41.5

KC

-7.5

-440

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.

SpreadLAC +7.5-115
SpreadKC -7.5-105
TotalOver 41.5-105
TotalUnder 41.5-115
MoneylineLAC to win+340
MoneylineKC to win-440

How games at these numbers have gone

  • The key number. 7.5 sits half a point past 7, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
  • Spread 7.5 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,279 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
  • Total 41.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.6% of the time across 1,293 of them.

Last three seasons

LAC

22-18-1 ATS · 22-19 SU · 17-24 O/U

12-8 ATS home

KC

16-25 ATS · 27-14 SU · 15-26 O/U

6-14 ATS away

Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.

The Read

Kansas City Chiefs open a 7.5-point favorite over Los Angeles Chargers — about 81% implied to win outright. The 41.5 total prices it near 25–17.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11–6 in 2025 — #13 of 32 by point differential (+1.6/g), but +1.7 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6–11 in 2025 — #12 of 32 by point differential (+2.0/g), and were 3.5 wins unlucky versus their margin.

Kansas City Chiefs face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #5).

2025 team profiles

Los Angeles Chargers

2025 record11-6Point diff / game+1.6Pythag wins (rank)9.3 (#13)2026 SOS rank#9

Kansas City Chiefs

2025 record6-11Point diff / game+2.0Pythag wins (rank)9.5 (#12)2026 SOS rank#5

Props on the board — LAC @ KC