Sunday, September 20 at 4:05 PM EDT
FinalLV 26 · LAC 14Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
LV
+6.5
+260
Total
43.5
LAC
-6.5
-325
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 6.5 sits half a point short of 7, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 6.5 — the 6-7 point band. In 687 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (44.3–51.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 43.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
LV
19-20 ATS · 10-29 SU · 20-19 O/U
LAC
22-18-1 ATS · 22-19 SU · 17-24 O/U
12-8 ATS home
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Los Angeles Chargers open a 6.5-point favorite over Las Vegas Raiders — about 76% implied to win outright. The 43.5 total prices it near 25–19.
Las Vegas Raiders went 3–14 in 2025 — #32 of 32 by point differential (-11.2/g).
Los Angeles Chargers went 11–6 in 2025 — #13 of 32 by point differential (+1.6/g), but +1.7 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
2025 team profiles
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers