Sunday, October 11 at 1:05 PM EDT
FinalLV 17 · NE 45Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
LV
+3.5
+150
Total
45.5
NE
-3.5
-180
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 3.5 sits half a point past 3, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 3.5 — the 3-4 point band. In 1,756 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.5% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 45.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
LV
19-20 ATS · 10-29 SU · 20-19 O/U
NE
24-17-2 ATS · 24-19 SU · 25-18 O/U
13-9 ATS home
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
New England Patriots open a 3.5-point favorite over Las Vegas Raiders — about 64% implied to win outright. The 45.5 total prices it near 25–21.
Las Vegas Raiders went 3–14 in 2025 — #32 of 32 by point differential (-11.2/g).
New England Patriots went 14–3 in 2025 — #2 of 32 by point differential (+10.0/g), but +1.5 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
New England Patriots face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #6).
2025 team profiles
Las Vegas Raiders
New England Patriots