Sunday, September 27 at 4:25 PM EDT
FinalLV 35 · NO 27Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
LV
+3.5
+180
Total
43.5
NO
-3.5
-218
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 3.5 sits half a point past 3, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 3.5 — the 3-4 point band. In 1,756 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.5% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 43.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
LV
19-20 ATS · 10-29 SU · 20-19 O/U
NO
18-21 ATS · 12-27 SU · 16-23 O/U
7-13 ATS home
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
New Orleans Saints open a 3.5-point favorite over Las Vegas Raiders — about 69% implied to win outright. The 43.5 total prices it near 24–20.
Las Vegas Raiders went 3–14 in 2025 — #32 of 32 by point differential (-11.2/g).
New Orleans Saints went 6–11 in 2025 — #26 of 32 by point differential (-4.5/g).
New Orleans Saints drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #31).
2025 team profiles
Las Vegas Raiders
New Orleans Saints