Sunday, September 13 at 4:25 PM EDT
FinalMIA 13 · LV 27Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
MIA
+3
+142
Total
40.5
LV
-3
-170
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 3 is one of the numbers NFL games land on most often, so this line can push — and a half-point move off it changes far more games than a half-point anywhere else.
- Spread 3 — the 3-4 point band. In 1,756 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.5% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 40.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
MIA
16-22-1 ATS · 15-24 SU · 20-19 O/U
9-14-1 ATS as an underdog
LV
19-20 ATS · 10-29 SU · 20-19 O/U
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Las Vegas Raiders open a 3-point favorite over Miami Dolphins — about 63% implied to win outright. The 40.5 total prices it near 22–19, a low-scoring script.
Miami Dolphins went 7–10 in 2025 — #24 of 32 by point differential (-4.5/g).
Las Vegas Raiders went 3–14 in 2025 — #32 of 32 by point differential (-11.2/g).
Miami Dolphins face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #2).
2025 team profiles
Miami Dolphins
Las Vegas Raiders