Sunday, September 20 at 4:26 PM EDT
FinalMIA 13 · SF 35Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
MIA
+12.5
+575
Total
44.5
SF
-12.5
-850
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 12.5 — the 10-14 point band. In 675 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (44.4–51.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 44.5 — spread in the 10-14 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.0% of the time across 681 of them.
Last three seasons
MIA
16-22-1 ATS · 15-24 SU · 20-19 O/U
9-14-1 ATS as an underdog
SF
21-20 ATS · 24-17 SU · 24-16 O/U
17-11 ATS as a favorite
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
San Francisco 49ers open a 12.5-point favorite over Miami Dolphins — about 89% implied to win outright. The 44.5 total prices it near 29–16.
Miami Dolphins went 7–10 in 2025 — #24 of 32 by point differential (-4.5/g).
San Francisco 49ers went 12–5 in 2025 — #8 of 32 by point differential (+3.9/g), but +1.9 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
Miami Dolphins face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #2).
2025 team profiles
Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers