Sunday, October 11 at 1:05 PM EDT
FinalMIN 23 · NO 13Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
MIN
-2.5
-142
Total
41.5
NO
+2.5
+120
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 2.5 sits half a point short of 3, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 2.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 1,487 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.8% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.3–52.4%) is taken into account.
- Total 41.5 — spread in the 0-3 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 48.7% of the time across 1,480 of them.
Last three seasons
MIN
24-15-1 ATS · 28-12 SU · 16-24 O/U
15-9-1 ATS as a favorite
NO
18-21 ATS · 12-27 SU · 16-23 O/U
7-13 ATS home
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Minnesota Vikings open a 2.5-point favorite over New Orleans Saints — about 59% implied to win outright. The 41.5 total prices it near 22–20.
Minnesota Vikings went 9–8 in 2025 — #18 of 32 by point differential (+0.6/g).
New Orleans Saints went 6–11 in 2025 — #26 of 32 by point differential (-4.5/g).
New Orleans Saints drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #31).
2025 team profiles
Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints