Sunday, September 27 at 4:05 PM EDT
FinalMIN 23 · TB 16Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
MIN
+1.5
-108
Total
42.5
TB
-1.5
-112
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 1.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 1,487 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.8% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.3–52.4%) is taken into account.
- Total 42.5 — spread in the 0-3 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 48.7% of the time across 1,480 of them.
Last three seasons
MIN
24-15-1 ATS · 28-12 SU · 16-24 O/U
15-9-1 ATS as a favorite
TB
16-23-1 ATS · 19-21 SU · 22-18 O/U
6-14-1 ATS home
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Tampa Bay Buccaneers open a 1.5-point favorite over Minnesota Vikings — about 53% implied to win outright. The 42.5 total prices it near 22–21.
Minnesota Vikings went 9–8 in 2025 — #18 of 32 by point differential (+0.6/g).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8–9 in 2025 — #20 of 32 by point differential (-1.8/g).
2025 team profiles
Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers