Sunday, October 4 at 1:02 PM EDT
FinalNE 29 · BUF 26Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
NE
+7
+275
Total
49.5
BUF
-7
-345
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 7 is one of the numbers NFL games land on most often, so this line can push — and a half-point move off it changes far more games than a half-point anywhere else.
- Spread 7 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,279 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 49.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.6% of the time across 1,293 of them.
Last three seasons
NE
24-17-2 ATS · 24-19 SU · 25-18 O/U
13-9 ATS home
BUF
25-19 ATS · 32-12 SU · 27-16 O/U
went over in 27 of 43
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Buffalo Bills open a 7-point favorite over New England Patriots — about 78% implied to win outright. The 49.5 total prices it near 28–21, one of the week's higher totals.
New England Patriots went 14–3 in 2025 — #2 of 32 by point differential (+10.0/g), but +1.5 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
Buffalo Bills went 12–5 in 2025 — #6 of 32 by point differential (+6.8/g).
New England Patriots face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #6).
2025 team profiles
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills