Thursday, October 22 at 8:15 PM EDT
NE
+1.5
+105
Total
48.5
CHI
-1.5
-125
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it and it grades into My Record once the game is final — pushes settle as pushes, which matters when 3 decides one NFL game in seven.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 1.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 1,487 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.8% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.3–52.4%) is taken into account.
- Total 48.5 — spread in the 0-3 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 48.7% of the time across 1,480 of them.
Last three seasons
NE
24-17-2 ATS · 24-19 SU · 25-18 O/U
13-9 ATS home
CHI
22-16-3 ATS · 20-21 SU · 17-24 O/U
14-6-2 ATS home
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Chicago Bears open a 1.5-point favorite over New England Patriots — about 56% implied to win outright. The 48.5 total prices it near 25–24, one of the week's higher totals.
New England Patriots went 14–3 in 2025 — #2 of 32 by point differential (+10.0/g), but +1.5 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
Chicago Bears went 11–6 in 2025 — #16 of 32 by point differential (+1.5/g), but +1.9 of those wins outran their scoring margin, a regression flag.
New England Patriots face one of the NFL's toughest 2026 schedules (strength of schedule #6).
2025 team profiles
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears