Sunday, September 20 at 1:02 PM EDT
FinalNO 24 · BAL 17Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
NO
+8.5
+295
Total
45.5
BAL
-8.5
-375
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 8.5 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,279 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 45.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.6% of the time across 1,293 of them.
Last three seasons
NO
18-21 ATS · 12-27 SU · 16-23 O/U
7-13 ATS home
BAL
20-20-1 ATS · 25-16 SU · 28-13 O/U
went over in 28 of 41
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Baltimore Ravens open a 8.5-point favorite over New Orleans Saints — about 79% implied to win outright. The 45.5 total prices it near 27–19.
New Orleans Saints went 6–11 in 2025 — #26 of 32 by point differential (-4.5/g).
Baltimore Ravens went 8–9 in 2025 — #15 of 32 by point differential (+1.5/g).
New Orleans Saints drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #31).
2025 team profiles
New Orleans Saints
Baltimore Ravens