Sunday, September 13 at 1:05 PM EDT
FinalNO 30 · DET 31Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
NO
+7
+260
Total
49.5
DET
-7
-325
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 7 is one of the numbers NFL games land on most often, so this line can push — and a half-point move off it changes far more games than a half-point anywhere else.
- Spread 7 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,279 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 49.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.6% of the time across 1,293 of them.
Last three seasons
NO
18-21 ATS · 12-27 SU · 16-23 O/U
7-13 ATS home
DET
21-17-2 ATS · 27-13 SU · 25-14 O/U
went over in 25 of 39
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Detroit Lions open a 7-point favorite over New Orleans Saints — about 76% implied to win outright. The 49.5 total prices it near 28–21, one of the week's higher totals.
New Orleans Saints went 6–11 in 2025 — #26 of 32 by point differential (-4.5/g).
Detroit Lions went 9–8 in 2025 — #10 of 32 by point differential (+4.0/g).
New Orleans Saints drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #31).
2025 team profiles
New Orleans Saints
Detroit Lions