Sunday, September 27 at 1:02 PM EDT
FinalNYJ 24 · DET 31Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
NYJ
+7
+260
Total
49.5
DET
-7
-325
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 7 is one of the numbers NFL games land on most often, so this line can push — and a half-point move off it changes far more games than a half-point anywhere else.
- Spread 7 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,279 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 49.5 — spread in the 7-10 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 50.6% of the time across 1,293 of them.
Last three seasons
NYJ
16-22-1 ATS · 10-29 SU · 22-17 O/U
10-14-1 ATS as an underdog
DET
21-17-2 ATS · 27-13 SU · 25-14 O/U
went over in 25 of 39
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Detroit Lions open a 7-point favorite over New York Jets — about 76% implied to win outright. The 49.5 total prices it near 28–21, one of the week's higher totals.
New York Jets went 3–14 in 2025 — #30 of 32 by point differential (-11.9/g).
Detroit Lions went 9–8 in 2025 — #10 of 32 by point differential (+4.0/g).
Detroit Lions drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #27).
2025 team profiles
New York Jets
Detroit Lions