How games at these numbers have gone

• The key number. 2.5 sits half a point short of 3, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
• Spread 2.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 1,487 games since 1999 the favorite covered 49.8% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.3–52.4%) is taken into account.
• Total 40.5 — spread in the 0-3 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 48.7% of the time across 1,480 of them.

Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.