Sunday, September 13 at 1:03 PM EDT
FinalTB 27 · CIN 33Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
TB
+3.5
+170
Total
50.5
CIN
-3.5
-205
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 3.5 sits half a point past 3, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 3.5 — the 3-4 point band. In 1,756 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.5% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 50.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
TB
16-23-1 ATS · 19-21 SU · 22-18 O/U
6-14-1 ATS home
CIN
20-18-1 ATS · 18-21 SU · 23-16 O/U
went over in 23 of 39
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Cincinnati Bengals open a 3.5-point favorite over Tampa Bay Buccaneers — about 67% implied to win outright. The 50.5 total prices it near 27–24, one of the week's higher totals.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8–9 in 2025 — #20 of 32 by point differential (-1.8/g).
Cincinnati Bengals went 6–11 in 2025 — #23 of 32 by point differential (-4.6/g).
Cincinnati Bengals drew one of the softest 2026 slates (strength of schedule #30).
2025 team profiles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cincinnati Bengals