Sunday, September 20 at 4:25 PM EDT
FinalWAS 20 · DAL 37Lines below are the pre-kickoff close.
WAS
+3.5
+185
Total
51.5
DAL
-3.5
-225
How games at these numbers have gone
- The key number. 3.5 sits half a point past 3, one of the margins games actually land on. That hook is most of what you are paying for or getting here.
- Spread 3.5 — the 3-4 point band. In 1,756 games since 1999 the favorite covered 48.5% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 51.5 — spread in the 3-7 point band. Games with a spread this size went over 49.5% of the time across 3,584 of them.
Last three seasons
WAS
21-21 ATS · 20-22 SU · 27-15 O/U
went over in 27 of 42
DAL
16-22-1 ATS · 16-23 SU · 28-11 O/U
went over in 28 of 39
Measured on 7,276 games with a closing line and a final score. Records cover three seasons and describe the team — they are not a signal, and every situational split we measured lands at a coin flip. Context, not a pick — see every band.
The Read
Dallas Cowboys open a 3.5-point favorite over Washington Commanders — about 69% implied to win outright. The 51.5 total prices it near 28–24, one of the week's higher totals.
Washington Commanders went 5–12 in 2025 — #27 of 32 by point differential (-5.6/g).
Dallas Cowboys went 7–9 in 2025 — #19 of 32 by point differential (-2.4/g).
2025 team profiles
Washington Commanders
Dallas Cowboys