How accurate these were
5 weeks · 1,280 player-weeks graded
4.66
avg miss (PPR)
5.16
last-season average
+0.50
bias · ran light
The market's projections landed 0.50 PPR closer than scoring the same players on last season's average — which is the comparison that matters, and the one nobody else publishes.
Fantasy
Market Projections
37 players across 14 games · lines as of 2026-10-16 17:05
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock BowersTE · LV | 18.6 | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.68 | +6.7 | — |
| 2 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 16.7 | 64 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.47 | +1.1 | — |
| 3 | George KittleTE · SF | 15.6 | 64 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.62 | +3.8 | — |
| 4 | Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG | 13.3 | 53 | 5.5 | — | — | 0.42 | +8.0 | — |
| 5 | Travis KelceTE · KC | 12.6 | 52 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.50 | +2.6 | — |
| 6 | Dalton KincaidTE · BUF | 12.3 | 52 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.44 | +3.3 | — |
| 7 | Tyler WarrenTE · IND | 12.3 | 49 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.48 | +2.4 | A+ |
| 8 | Tucker KraftTE · GB | 11.8 | 49 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.41 | +0.7 | — |
| 9 | Juwan JohnsonTE · NO | 10.7 | 42 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.33 | +1.2 | — |
| 10 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE · CLE | 10.4 | 37 | 4.5 | — | — | 0.38 | +0.3 | — |
| 11 | Colston LovelandTE · CHI | 9.7 | 37 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.43 | +0.6 | — |
| 12 | Hunter HenryTE · NE | 9.3 | 33 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.42 | -0.1 | — |
| 13 | Pat FreiermuthTE · PIT | 8.9 | 38 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.28 | +1.9 | — |
| 14 | Brenton StrangeTE · JAX | 8.9 | 38 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.28 | +0.4 | — |
| 15 | Dalton SchultzTE · HOU | 8.7 | 36 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.27 | -0.6 | — |
| 16 | Mark AndrewsTE · BAL | 8.3 | 29 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.33 | +1.2 | A- |
| 17 | Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATL | 8.3 | 31 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.28 | -2.6 | — |
| 18 | Jake FergusonTE · DAL | 8.0 | 27 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.31 | -1.8 | — |
| 19 | Michael MayerTE · LV | 8.0 | 29 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.27 | +2.4 | — |
| 20 | Tyler HigbeeTE · LAR | 7.8 | 35 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.30 | +1.2 | — |
| 21 | Cade OttonTE · TB | 7.8 | 32 | 3.5 | — | — | 0.18 | +0.3 | A- |
| 22 | A.J. BarnerTE · SEA | 6.8 | 27 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.28 | -1.1 | — |
| 23 | Darren WallerTE · CAR | 6.8 | 29 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.24 | -1.5 | — |
| 24 | Kenyon SadiqTE · NYJ | 6.3 | 25 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.23 | — | — |
| 25 | Darnell WashingtonTE · PIT | 6.0 | 22 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.23 | +0.4 | — |
| 26 | Charlie KolarTE · LAC | 5.9 | 24 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.18 | +2.4 | — |
| 27 | Evan EngramTE · DEN | 5.6 | 21 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.18 | -0.5 | — |
| 28 | Gunnar HelmTE · TEN | 5.3 | 18 | 2.5 | — | — | 0.17 | -0.4 | — |
| 29 | Noah GrayTE · KC | 4.3 | 13 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.26 | +0.8 | — |
| 30 | Colby ParkinsonTE · LAR | 4.3 | 14 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.24 | -4.0 | — |
| 31 | Oronde Gadsden IITE · LAC | 3.6 | 14 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.13 | -4.3 | — |
| 32 | Cole KmetTE · CHI | 3.5 | 9 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.19 | -1.5 | — |
| 33 | Noah FantTE · NO | 3.4 | 11 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.15 | -2.2 | — |
| 34 | Elijah HigginsTE · ARI | 3.4 | 14 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.09 | -0.5 | — |
| 35 | Theo JohnsonTE · NYG | 3.1 | 8 | 1.5 | — | — | 0.15 | -4.6 | — |
| 36 | Davis AllenTE · LAR | 1.9 | 8 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.11 | -2.6 | — |
| 37 | Nate BoerkircherTE · JAX | 1.5 | 5 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.09 | — | — |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →