How accurate these were
5 weeks · 1,280 player-weeks graded
4.66
avg miss (PPR)
5.16
last-season average
+0.50
bias · ran light
The market's projections landed 0.50 PPR closer than scoring the same players on last season's average — which is the comparison that matters, and the one nobody else publishes.
Fantasy
Market Projections
120 players across 93 games · lines as of 2026-09-17 20:00
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 24.1 | — | — | 34 | 254 | 0.77 | +3.3 | — |
| 2 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 24.1 | — | — | 37 | 249 | 0.75 | +3.3 | — |
| 3 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 23.9 | — | — | 33 | 239 | 0.86 | +3.2 | — |
| 4 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 23.7 | — | — | 19 | 251 | 0.30 | +5.9 | — |
| 5 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 23.5 | — | — | 34 | 240 | 0.76 | +2.7 | — |
| 6 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 23.4 | — | — | 32 | 243 | 0.77 | +2.7 | — |
| 7 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 23.0 | — | — | 10 | 274 | 0.18 | +5.5 | — |
| 8 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 22.5 | — | — | 9 | 272 | 0.13 | +6.6 | — |
| 9 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 22.4 | — | — | 9 | 273 | 0.10 | +6.5 | — |
| 10 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 22.1 | — | — | 41 | 244 | 0.39 | +6.2 | — |
| 11 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 22.0 | — | — | 2 | 286 | 0.08 | +5.3 | — |
| 12 | Matthew StaffordQB · LAR | 21.7 | — | — | 1 | 282 | 0.07 | +2.5 | A- |
| 13 | Matthew StaffordQB · LAR | 21.4 | — | — | 1 | 277 | 0.05 | +2.2 | A- |
| 14 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 21.1 | — | — | 32 | 221 | 0.53 | +0.4 | — |
| 15 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 21.0 | — | — | 1 | 266 | 0.06 | +4.3 | — |
| 16 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 21.0 | — | — | 37 | 226 | 0.39 | +5.5 | — |
| 17 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 20.7 | — | — | 40 | 210 | 0.40 | +4.8 | — |
| 18 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 20.6 | — | — | 40 | 220 | 0.32 | +4.7 | — |
| 19 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 20.6 | — | — | 30 | 212 | 0.53 | +2.8 | — |
| 20 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 20.4 | — | — | 27 | 217 | 0.51 | +2.6 | — |
| 21 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 20.4 | — | — | 32 | 207 | 0.49 | +2.6 | — |
| 22 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 20.0 | — | — | 27 | 238 | 0.31 | +0.8 | — |
| 23 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 19.9 | — | — | 18 | 261 | 0.29 | +5.6 | — |
| 24 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 19.9 | — | — | 31 | 219 | 0.36 | +4.0 | — |
| 25 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 19.9 | — | — | 38 | 207 | 0.32 | +4.4 | — |
| 26 | Jaxson DartQB · NYG | 19.9 | — | — | 36 | 214 | 0.29 | +3.4 | — |
| 27 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.9 | — | — | 33 | 230 | 0.24 | +0.6 | — |
| 28 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.8 | — | — | 29 | 224 | 0.33 | +0.5 | — |
| 29 | Jaxson DartQB · NYG | 19.7 | — | — | 31 | 214 | 0.35 | +3.2 | — |
| 30 | Jalon DanielsQB · TB | 19.7 | — | — | 45 | 185 | 0.30 | — | A- |
| 31 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 19.5 | — | — | 16 | 254 | 0.30 | +5.1 | — |
| 32 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 19.3 | — | — | 15 | 259 | 0.25 | +0.7 | — |
| 33 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.3 | — | — | 28 | 230 | 0.23 | 0.0 | — |
| 34 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.3 | — | — | 27 | 224 | 0.28 | 0.0 | — |
| 35 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.2 | — | — | 27 | 230 | 0.22 | -0.1 | — |
| 36 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 19.2 | — | — | 21 | 243 | 0.24 | +4.8 | — |
| 37 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 19.1 | — | — | 18 | 239 | 0.30 | +1.3 | — |
| 38 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 19.0 | — | — | 18 | 232 | 0.33 | +0.4 | — |
| 39 | Kyler MurrayQB · MIN | 19.0 | — | — | 24 | 221 | 0.30 | +4.0 | — |
| 40 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 18.9 | — | — | 25 | 226 | 0.24 | +1.2 | — |
| 41 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 18.9 | — | — | 23 | 237 | 0.20 | +1.8 | — |
| 42 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.9 | — | — | 11 | 276 | 0.14 | +1.4 | — |
| 43 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 18.9 | — | — | 22 | 231 | 0.25 | +1.1 | — |
| 44 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.8 | — | — | 13 | 268 | 0.15 | +1.3 | — |
| 45 | Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI | 18.6 | — | — | 9 | 272 | 0.16 | +2.9 | — |
| 46 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 18.6 | — | — | 18 | 237 | 0.24 | +0.8 | — |
| 47 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.6 | — | — | 9 | 267 | 0.18 | +1.1 | — |
| 48 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.6 | — | — | 11 | 269 | 0.14 | +1.1 | — |
| 49 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 18.6 | — | — | 14 | 240 | 0.28 | +0.8 | — |
| 50 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 18.6 | — | — | 17 | 231 | 0.28 | -0.1 | — |
| 51 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 18.5 | — | — | 24 | 230 | 0.17 | +0.7 | — |
| 52 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 18.5 | — | — | 16 | 237 | 0.26 | -0.3 | — |
| 53 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 18.5 | — | — | 20 | 237 | 0.18 | +0.7 | — |
| 54 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 18.5 | — | — | 29 | 191 | 0.34 | +3.0 | — |
| 55 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 18.4 | — | — | 19 | 223 | 0.27 | -0.5 | — |
| 56 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 18.3 | — | — | 21 | 230 | 0.18 | +0.6 | — |
| 57 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.3 | — | — | 9 | 265 | 0.15 | +0.8 | — |
| 58 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 18.3 | — | — | 16 | 238 | 0.20 | -0.6 | — |
| 59 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 18.2 | — | — | 20 | 230 | 0.18 | +1.1 | — |
| 60 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 18.2 | — | — | 17 | 224 | 0.27 | -0.5 | — |
| 61 | Bo NixQB · DEN | 18.1 | — | — | 19 | 222 | 0.24 | +1.0 | — |
| 62 | Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE | 18.1 | — | — | 30 | 203 | 0.18 | — | A |
| 63 | Marcus MariotaQB · WAS | 18.1 | — | — | 25 | 206 | 0.24 | +5.0 | — |
| 64 | Bo NixQB · DEN | 18.1 | — | — | 19 | 225 | 0.21 | +1.0 | — |
| 65 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 18.1 | — | — | 7 | 270 | 0.11 | +2.8 | — |
| 66 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 18.1 | — | — | 12 | 235 | 0.26 | +3.7 | — |
| 67 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 18.1 | — | — | 16 | 232 | 0.21 | +3.7 | — |
| 68 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 18.1 | — | — | 20 | 224 | 0.19 | +1.0 | — |
| 69 | C.J. StroudQB · HOU | 18.0 | — | — | 10 | 258 | 0.13 | +3.3 | — |
| 70 | Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 18.0 | — | — | 13 | 243 | 0.18 | +4.2 | — |
| 71 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 18.0 | — | — | 14 | 226 | 0.27 | -0.6 | — |
| 72 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 18.0 | — | — | 9 | 259 | 0.14 | +2.1 | — |
| 73 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | 18.0 | — | — | 18 | 233 | 0.16 | +2.4 | — |
| 74 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 18.0 | — | — | 16 | 227 | 0.22 | -0.9 | — |
| 75 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 17.9 | — | — | 12 | 237 | 0.22 | +3.6 | — |
| 76 | Kyler MurrayQB · MIN | 17.9 | — | — | 21 | 214 | 0.22 | +3.0 | — |
| 77 | C.J. StroudQB · HOU | 17.9 | — | — | 12 | 245 | 0.17 | +3.2 | — |
| 78 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 17.8 | — | — | 14 | 229 | 0.22 | -0.8 | — |
| 79 | Kyler MurrayQB · MIN | 17.8 | — | — | 23 | 205 | 0.23 | +2.8 | — |
| 80 | Bo NixQB · DEN | 17.7 | — | — | 16 | 223 | 0.21 | +0.6 | — |
| 81 | Daniel JonesQB · IND | 17.7 | — | — | 12 | 232 | 0.21 | +1.1 | — |
| 82 | Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 17.7 | — | — | 10 | 240 | 0.19 | +3.9 | — |
| 83 | Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 17.7 | — | — | 15 | 222 | 0.23 | +3.9 | — |
| 84 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 17.7 | — | — | 25 | 203 | 0.18 | +0.6 | — |
| 85 | Bo NixQB · DEN | 17.6 | — | — | 15 | 221 | 0.22 | +0.5 | — |
| 86 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 17.6 | — | — | 10 | 251 | 0.10 | +1.7 | — |
| 87 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 17.5 | — | — | 8 | 252 | 0.12 | +2.2 | — |
| 88 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | 17.5 | — | — | 19 | 217 | 0.17 | +1.9 | — |
| 89 | Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE | 17.5 | — | — | 26 | 192 | 0.21 | — | A |
| 90 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 17.4 | — | — | 6 | 254 | 0.12 | +1.5 | — |
| 91 | Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 17.4 | — | — | 15 | 221 | 0.19 | +3.6 | — |
| 92 | C.J. StroudQB · HOU | 17.4 | — | — | 11 | 240 | 0.13 | +2.6 | — |
| 93 | Daniel JonesQB · IND | 17.4 | — | — | 12 | 223 | 0.22 | +0.8 | — |
| 94 | Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE | 17.4 | — | — | 26 | 187 | 0.23 | — | A |
| 95 | Bo NixQB · DEN | 17.3 | — | — | 17 | 212 | 0.20 | +0.2 | — |
| 96 | Daniel JonesQB · IND | 17.3 | — | — | 8 | 234 | 0.20 | +0.7 | — |
| 97 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 17.3 | — | — | 15 | 226 | 0.14 | -1.5 | — |
| 98 | Kyler MurrayQB · MIN | 17.3 | — | — | 18 | 211 | 0.18 | +2.3 | — |
| 99 | Baker MayfieldQB · TB | 17.3 | — | — | 17 | 217 | 0.16 | +1.6 | — |
| 100 | Tyler HuntleyQB · BAL | 17.2 | — | — | 29 | 180 | 0.20 | +6.0 | — |
| 101 | C.J. StroudQB · HOU | 17.1 | — | — | 11 | 237 | 0.10 | +2.3 | — |
| 102 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 17.1 | — | — | 7 | 244 | 0.12 | +1.7 | — |
| 103 | Geno SmithQB · NYJ | 17.1 | — | — | 12 | 232 | 0.11 | +4.8 | — |
| 104 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 17.1 | — | — | 9 | 232 | 0.16 | +1.7 | — |
| 105 | Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI | 17.0 | — | — | 9 | 230 | 0.17 | +1.3 | — |
| 106 | Tyson BagentQB · CHI | 17.0 | — | — | 13 | 219 | 0.17 | +6.4 | — |
| 107 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 16.9 | — | — | 9 | 237 | 0.10 | +1.6 | — |
| 108 | Bryce YoungQB · CAR | 16.9 | — | — | 14 | 210 | 0.20 | +3.1 | — |
| 109 | Geno SmithQB · NYJ | 16.9 | — | — | 11 | 231 | 0.11 | +4.6 | — |
| 110 | Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI | 16.9 | — | — | 8 | 234 | 0.14 | +1.2 | — |
| 111 | Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI | 16.9 | — | — | 7 | 237 | 0.13 | +1.1 | — |
| 112 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 16.9 | — | — | 6 | 239 | 0.13 | +1.5 | — |
| 113 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 16.9 | — | — | 1 | 259 | 0.08 | +0.1 | — |
| 114 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 16.8 | — | — | 1 | 260 | 0.07 | +0.1 | — |
| 115 | Matthew StaffordQB · LAR | 16.8 | — | — | 1 | 263 | 0.05 | -2.4 | A- |
| 116 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 16.7 | — | — | 1 | 259 | 0.06 | 0.0 | — |
| 117 | Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI | 16.7 | — | — | 12 | 223 | 0.11 | +1.0 | — |
| 118 | Tyson BagentQB · CHI | 16.6 | — | — | 15 | 203 | 0.18 | +6.0 | — |
| 119 | C.J. StroudQB · HOU | 16.6 | — | — | 12 | 223 | 0.10 | +1.9 | — |
| 120 | Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI | 16.6 | — | — | 11 | 222 | 0.12 | +0.9 | — |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →