How accurate these were
5 weeks · 1,280 player-weeks graded
4.66
avg miss (PPR)
5.16
last-season average
+0.50
bias · ran light
The market's projections landed 0.50 PPR closer than scoring the same players on last season's average — which is the comparison that matters, and the one nobody else publishes.
Fantasy
Market Projections
120 players across 93 games · lines as of 2026-10-04 20:00
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 25.3 | 38 | 4.5 | 98 | — | 1.21 | +6.9 | — |
| 2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 25.1 | 40 | 4.5 | 91 | — | 1.27 | +6.8 | — |
| 3 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 24.1 | — | — | 34 | 254 | 0.77 | +3.3 | — |
| 4 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 24.1 | — | — | 37 | 249 | 0.75 | +3.3 | — |
| 5 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 23.9 | — | — | 33 | 239 | 0.86 | +3.2 | — |
| 6 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 23.8 | 36 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 1.13 | +5.4 | — |
| 7 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 23.7 | — | — | 19 | 251 | 0.30 | +5.9 | — |
| 8 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 23.5 | — | — | 34 | 240 | 0.76 | +2.7 | — |
| 9 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 23.4 | — | — | 32 | 243 | 0.77 | +2.7 | — |
| 10 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 23.1 | 44 | 5.5 | 81 | — | 0.87 | +4.6 | — |
| 11 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 23.0 | 32 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 1.07 | +4.7 | — |
| 12 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 23.0 | — | — | 10 | 274 | 0.18 | +5.5 | — |
| 13 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 22.9 | 37 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 0.96 | +4.3 | — |
| 14 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 22.6 | 31 | 4.5 | 87 | — | 1.06 | +4.2 | — |
| 15 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 22.5 | — | — | 9 | 272 | 0.13 | +6.6 | — |
| 16 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 22.4 | — | — | 9 | 273 | 0.10 | +6.5 | — |
| 17 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 22.3 | 29 | 3.5 | 94 | — | 1.10 | +3.8 | — |
| 18 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 22.1 | — | — | 41 | 244 | 0.39 | +6.2 | — |
| 19 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 22.0 | — | — | 2 | 286 | 0.08 | +5.3 | — |
| 20 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 22.0 | 95 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.84 | +2.7 | — |
| 21 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 22.0 | 46 | 5.5 | 68 | — | 0.86 | +1.4 | — |
| 22 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 21.8 | 96 | 7.5 | 2 | — | 0.77 | +2.4 | — |
| 23 | Matthew StaffordQB · LAR | 21.7 | — | — | 1 | 282 | 0.07 | +2.5 | A- |
| 24 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 21.6 | 99 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.70 | +3.8 | — |
| 25 | Matthew StaffordQB · LAR | 21.4 | — | — | 1 | 277 | 0.05 | +2.2 | A- |
| 26 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 21.1 | — | — | 32 | 221 | 0.53 | +0.4 | — |
| 27 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 21.1 | 28 | 3.5 | 91 | — | 0.97 | +2.6 | — |
| 28 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 21.1 | 40 | 4.5 | 60 | — | 1.11 | +0.5 | — |
| 29 | Jared GoffQB · DET | 21.0 | — | — | 1 | 266 | 0.06 | +4.3 | — |
| 30 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 21.0 | — | — | 37 | 226 | 0.39 | +5.5 | — |
| 31 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 20.9 | 86 | 8.5 | — | — | 0.63 | +5.3 | — |
| 32 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 20.8 | 22 | 2.5 | 94 | — | 1.14 | +2.7 | — |
| 33 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 20.7 | — | — | 40 | 210 | 0.40 | +4.8 | — |
| 34 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 20.7 | 37 | 4.5 | 79 | — | 0.78 | +2.2 | — |
| 35 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 20.6 | 89 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.72 | +4.2 | — |
| 36 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 20.6 | 96 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.77 | +2.9 | — |
| 37 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 20.6 | — | — | 40 | 220 | 0.32 | +4.7 | — |
| 38 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 20.6 | — | — | 30 | 212 | 0.53 | +2.8 | — |
| 39 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 20.5 | 39 | 4.5 | 61 | — | 1.01 | -0.1 | — |
| 40 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 20.4 | 39 | 4.5 | 58 | — | 1.05 | -0.2 | — |
| 41 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 20.4 | — | — | 32 | 207 | 0.49 | +2.6 | — |
| 42 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 20.4 | — | — | 27 | 217 | 0.51 | +2.6 | — |
| 43 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 20.3 | 82 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.77 | +4.1 | — |
| 44 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 20.3 | 23 | 3.5 | 94 | — | 0.86 | — | — |
| 45 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 20.3 | 23 | 3.5 | 94 | — | 0.86 | +9.9 | — |
| 46 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 20.1 | 84 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.71 | +3.7 | — |
| 47 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 20.0 | 19 | 2.5 | 90 | — | 1.12 | +1.9 | — |
| 48 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 20.0 | — | — | 27 | 238 | 0.31 | +0.8 | — |
| 49 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 19.9 | — | — | 18 | 261 | 0.29 | +5.6 | — |
| 50 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 19.9 | — | — | 31 | 219 | 0.36 | +4.0 | — |
| 51 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 19.9 | 91 | 7.5 | 2 | — | 0.54 | +0.6 | — |
| 52 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 19.9 | — | — | 38 | 207 | 0.32 | +4.4 | — |
| 53 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 19.9 | 95 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.66 | +2.1 | — |
| 54 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.9 | 23 | 3.5 | 87 | — | 0.91 | — | — |
| 55 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.9 | 23 | 3.5 | 87 | — | 0.91 | +9.5 | — |
| 56 | Jaxson DartQB · NYG | 19.9 | — | — | 36 | 214 | 0.29 | +3.4 | — |
| 57 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.9 | — | — | 33 | 230 | 0.24 | +0.6 | — |
| 58 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 19.8 | 77 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.78 | +3.7 | — |
| 59 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.8 | — | — | 29 | 224 | 0.33 | +0.5 | — |
| 60 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 19.7 | 79 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.73 | +3.6 | — |
| 61 | Jaxson DartQB · NYG | 19.7 | — | — | 31 | 214 | 0.35 | +3.2 | — |
| 62 | Jalon DanielsQB · TB | 19.7 | — | — | 45 | 185 | 0.30 | — | A- |
| 63 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.6 | 20 | 3.5 | 84 | — | 0.97 | +9.2 | — |
| 64 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.6 | 20 | 3.5 | 84 | — | 0.97 | — | — |
| 65 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 19.6 | 93 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.63 | +5.8 | — |
| 66 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 19.5 | — | — | 16 | 254 | 0.30 | +5.1 | — |
| 67 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 19.5 | 93 | 6.5 | 1 | — | 0.61 | +1.7 | — |
| 68 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 19.5 | 81 | 7.5 | — | — | 0.66 | +3.3 | — |
| 69 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 19.5 | 36 | 4.5 | 72 | — | 0.71 | +0.9 | — |
| 70 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 19.3 | — | — | 15 | 259 | 0.25 | +0.7 | — |
| 71 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.3 | — | — | 28 | 230 | 0.23 | 0.0 | — |
| 72 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.3 | — | — | 27 | 224 | 0.28 | 0.0 | — |
| 73 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 19.3 | 40 | 4.5 | 60 | — | 0.81 | -1.4 | — |
| 74 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 19.2 | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.71 | +6.3 | — |
| 75 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 19.2 | — | — | 27 | 230 | 0.22 | -0.1 | — |
| 76 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 19.2 | — | — | 21 | 243 | 0.24 | +4.8 | — |
| 77 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.1 | 23 | 3.5 | 86 | — | 0.81 | — | — |
| 78 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.1 | 23 | 3.5 | 86 | — | 0.81 | +8.7 | — |
| 79 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 19.1 | — | — | 18 | 239 | 0.30 | +1.3 | — |
| 80 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 19.0 | — | — | 18 | 232 | 0.33 | +0.4 | — |
| 81 | Kyler MurrayQB · MIN | 19.0 | — | — | 24 | 221 | 0.30 | +4.0 | — |
| 82 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 18.9 | — | — | 25 | 226 | 0.24 | +1.2 | — |
| 83 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 18.9 | — | — | 23 | 237 | 0.20 | +1.8 | — |
| 84 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.9 | — | — | 11 | 276 | 0.14 | +1.4 | — |
| 85 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 18.9 | — | — | 22 | 231 | 0.25 | +1.1 | — |
| 86 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.8 | — | — | 13 | 268 | 0.15 | +1.3 | — |
| 87 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 18.8 | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.64 | -0.5 | — |
| 88 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 18.6 | — | — | 18 | 237 | 0.24 | +0.8 | — |
| 89 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 18.6 | 87 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.58 | +4.4 | — |
| 90 | Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI | 18.6 | — | — | 9 | 272 | 0.16 | +2.9 | — |
| 91 | Brock BowersTE · LV | 18.6 | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.68 | +6.7 | — |
| 92 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.6 | — | — | 9 | 267 | 0.18 | +1.1 | — |
| 93 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.6 | — | — | 11 | 269 | 0.14 | +1.1 | — |
| 94 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 18.6 | — | — | 14 | 240 | 0.28 | +0.8 | — |
| 95 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 18.6 | — | — | 17 | 231 | 0.28 | -0.1 | — |
| 96 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 18.6 | 79 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.70 | +2.4 | — |
| 97 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 18.6 | 86 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.58 | +5.6 | — |
| 98 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 18.5 | — | — | 24 | 230 | 0.17 | +0.7 | — |
| 99 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 18.5 | — | — | 16 | 237 | 0.26 | -0.3 | — |
| 100 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 18.5 | — | — | 20 | 237 | 0.18 | +0.7 | — |
| 101 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 18.5 | — | — | 29 | 191 | 0.34 | +3.0 | — |
| 102 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 18.4 | — | — | 19 | 223 | 0.27 | -0.5 | — |
| 103 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 18.4 | 79 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.67 | +1.9 | — |
| 104 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 18.3 | — | — | 21 | 230 | 0.18 | +0.6 | — |
| 105 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 18.3 | — | — | 9 | 265 | 0.15 | +0.8 | — |
| 106 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 18.3 | 8 | 1.5 | 100 | — | 1.01 | +3.9 | A- |
| 107 | Patrick MahomesQB · KC | 18.3 | — | — | 16 | 238 | 0.20 | -0.6 | — |
| 108 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 18.3 | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.60 | +4.5 | — |
| 109 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 18.2 | — | — | 20 | 230 | 0.18 | +1.1 | — |
| 110 | Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX | 18.2 | — | — | 17 | 224 | 0.27 | -0.5 | — |
| 111 | Bo NixQB · DEN | 18.1 | — | — | 19 | 222 | 0.24 | +1.0 | — |
| 112 | Deshaun WatsonQB · CLE | 18.1 | — | — | 30 | 203 | 0.18 | — | A |
| 113 | Marcus MariotaQB · WAS | 18.1 | — | — | 25 | 206 | 0.24 | +5.0 | — |
| 114 | Bo NixQB · DEN | 18.1 | — | — | 19 | 225 | 0.21 | +1.0 | — |
| 115 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 18.1 | — | — | 7 | 270 | 0.11 | +2.8 | — |
| 116 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 18.1 | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 0.56 | +4.4 | — |
| 117 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 18.1 | — | — | 12 | 235 | 0.26 | +3.7 | — |
| 118 | Tyler ShoughQB · NO | 18.1 | — | — | 16 | 232 | 0.21 | +3.7 | — |
| 119 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 18.1 | — | — | 20 | 224 | 0.19 | +1.0 | — |
| 120 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 18.1 | 11 | 1.5 | 94 | — | 1.02 | +3.7 | A- |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →