How accurate these were
5 weeks · 1,280 player-weeks graded
4.66
avg miss (PPR)
5.16
last-season average
+0.50
bias · ran light
The market's projections landed 0.50 PPR closer than scoring the same players on last season's average — which is the comparison that matters, and the one nobody else publishes.
Fantasy
Market Projections
120 players across 93 games · lines as of 2026-10-04 20:00
Where these come from. Not a model — this week's prop lines converted into PPR points. Receiving and rushing yards at 0.1/yd, receptions at 1.0, passing yards at 0.04, and expected touchdowns from the anytime and 2+ TD markets. You can check every number against the board yourself.
Not yet validated. We grade these against what players actually score, starting Week 1. Until that has real weeks behind it, treat this as what the market expects — not as a claim that the market is right.
| # | Player | PPR | Rec yd | Rec | Rush yd | Pass yd | E[TD] | vs base | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 25.3 | 38 | 4.5 | 98 | — | 1.21 | +6.9 | — |
| 2 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 25.1 | 40 | 4.5 | 91 | — | 1.27 | +6.8 | — |
| 3 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 23.8 | 36 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 1.13 | +5.4 | — |
| 4 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 23.1 | 44 | 5.5 | 81 | — | 0.87 | +4.6 | — |
| 5 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 23.0 | 32 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 1.07 | +4.7 | — |
| 6 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 22.9 | 37 | 4.5 | 90 | — | 0.96 | +4.3 | — |
| 7 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 22.6 | 31 | 4.5 | 87 | — | 1.06 | +4.2 | — |
| 8 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 22.3 | 29 | 3.5 | 94 | — | 1.10 | +3.8 | — |
| 9 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 22.0 | 46 | 5.5 | 68 | — | 0.86 | +1.4 | — |
| 10 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 21.1 | 28 | 3.5 | 91 | — | 0.97 | +2.6 | — |
| 11 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 21.1 | 40 | 4.5 | 60 | — | 1.11 | +0.5 | — |
| 12 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 20.8 | 22 | 2.5 | 94 | — | 1.14 | +2.7 | — |
| 13 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 20.7 | 37 | 4.5 | 79 | — | 0.78 | +2.2 | — |
| 14 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 20.5 | 39 | 4.5 | 61 | — | 1.01 | -0.1 | — |
| 15 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 20.4 | 39 | 4.5 | 58 | — | 1.05 | -0.2 | — |
| 16 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 20.3 | 23 | 3.5 | 94 | — | 0.86 | — | — |
| 17 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 20.3 | 23 | 3.5 | 94 | — | 0.86 | +9.9 | — |
| 18 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 20.0 | 19 | 2.5 | 90 | — | 1.12 | +1.9 | — |
| 19 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.9 | 23 | 3.5 | 87 | — | 0.91 | — | — |
| 20 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.9 | 23 | 3.5 | 87 | — | 0.91 | +9.5 | — |
| 21 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.6 | 20 | 3.5 | 84 | — | 0.97 | +9.2 | — |
| 22 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.6 | 20 | 3.5 | 84 | — | 0.97 | — | — |
| 23 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 19.5 | 36 | 4.5 | 72 | — | 0.71 | +0.9 | — |
| 24 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 19.3 | 40 | 4.5 | 60 | — | 0.81 | -1.4 | — |
| 25 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.1 | 23 | 3.5 | 86 | — | 0.81 | — | — |
| 26 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 19.1 | 23 | 3.5 | 86 | — | 0.81 | +8.7 | — |
| 27 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 18.3 | 8 | 1.5 | 100 | — | 1.01 | +3.9 | A- |
| 28 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 18.1 | 11 | 1.5 | 94 | — | 1.02 | +3.7 | A- |
| 29 | D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 18.0 | 20 | 2.5 | 85 | — | 0.85 | +5.4 | — |
| 30 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 17.8 | 38 | 4.5 | 50 | — | 0.77 | -2.8 | — |
| 31 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 17.7 | 7 | 1.5 | 95 | — | 1.02 | +3.4 | A- |
| 32 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | 17.7 | 23 | 3.5 | 75 | — | 0.75 | +5.6 | — |
| 33 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 17.6 | 21 | 2.5 | 83 | — | 0.79 | -0.6 | — |
| 34 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | 17.5 | 25 | 3.5 | 77 | — | 0.66 | +5.4 | — |
| 35 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 17.5 | 17 | 2.5 | 85 | — | 0.82 | -0.6 | — |
| 36 | James CookRB · BUF | 17.4 | 19 | 2.5 | 80 | — | 0.85 | +2.0 | — |
| 37 | James CookRB · BUF | 17.4 | 19 | 2.5 | 80 | — | 0.85 | — | — |
| 38 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 17.4 | 18 | 2.5 | 78 | — | 0.90 | -0.8 | — |
| 39 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 17.1 | 17 | 2.5 | 82 | — | 0.81 | -1.0 | — |
| 40 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | 17.0 | 20 | 2.5 | 69 | — | 0.95 | +3.4 | A+ |
| 41 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | 17.0 | 23 | 3.5 | 64 | — | 0.82 | +2.5 | — |
| 42 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 16.9 | 14 | 2.5 | 77 | — | 0.91 | +3.6 | — |
| 43 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 16.9 | 23 | 3.5 | 70 | — | 0.70 | +4.1 | — |
| 44 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | 16.9 | 20 | 3.5 | 67 | — | 0.79 | +7.7 | — |
| 45 | James CookRB · BUF | 16.8 | 9 | 1.5 | 94 | — | 0.85 | — | — |
| 46 | James CookRB · BUF | 16.8 | 9 | 1.5 | 94 | — | 0.85 | +1.4 | — |
| 47 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | 16.8 | 23 | 2.5 | 71 | — | 0.82 | +3.1 | A+ |
| 48 | Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE | 16.7 | 20 | 2.5 | 72 | — | 0.84 | +5.3 | — |
| 49 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | 16.7 | 28 | 3.5 | 69 | — | 0.59 | -0.5 | — |
| 50 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 16.6 | 14 | 2.5 | 71 | — | 0.95 | +3.3 | — |
| 51 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 16.5 | 15 | 2.5 | 68 | — | 0.97 | +3.2 | — |
| 52 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 16.4 | 22 | 3.5 | 65 | — | 0.72 | — | — |
| 53 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 16.4 | 22 | 3.5 | 65 | — | 0.72 | +6.0 | — |
| 54 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | 16.4 | 27 | 4.5 | 59 | — | 0.56 | +4.3 | — |
| 55 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | 16.3 | 27 | 4.5 | 61 | — | 0.52 | -0.8 | — |
| 56 | D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 16.3 | 17 | 2.5 | 67 | — | 0.92 | +3.7 | — |
| 57 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 16.3 | 8 | 1.5 | 91 | — | 0.83 | +1.9 | A- |
| 58 | Jeremiyah LoveRB · ARI | 16.3 | 18 | 3.5 | 66 | — | 0.75 | — | — |
| 59 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 16.3 | 26 | 3.5 | 64 | — | 0.64 | +3.5 | — |
| 60 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | 16.2 | 22 | 2.5 | 72 | — | 0.73 | +7.0 | — |
| 61 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 16.2 | 27 | 3.5 | 56 | — | 0.75 | +3.4 | — |
| 62 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | 16.1 | 24 | 3.5 | 59 | — | 0.74 | +1.6 | — |
| 63 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | 16.1 | 20 | 3.5 | 60 | — | 0.78 | +1.6 | — |
| 64 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | 16.1 | 15 | 2.5 | 73 | — | 0.82 | +3.8 | — |
| 65 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | 16.1 | 24 | 3.5 | 64 | — | 0.64 | +1.5 | — |
| 66 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 16.0 | 11 | 2.5 | 76 | — | 0.81 | +2.7 | — |
| 67 | Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT | 16.0 | 29 | 3.5 | 60 | — | 0.61 | +3.9 | — |
| 68 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | 16.0 | 16 | 2.5 | 77 | — | 0.71 | +3.2 | — |
| 69 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 15.9 | 21 | 3.5 | 60 | — | 0.73 | +3.1 | — |
| 70 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | 15.8 | 18 | 2.5 | 64 | — | 0.87 | +2.2 | A+ |
| 71 | James CookRB · BUF | 15.8 | 13 | 1.5 | 81 | — | 0.83 | +0.4 | — |
| 72 | James CookRB · BUF | 15.8 | 13 | 1.5 | 81 | — | 0.83 | — | — |
| 73 | James CookRB · BUF | 15.8 | 20 | 2.5 | 75 | — | 0.64 | — | — |
| 74 | James CookRB · BUF | 15.8 | 20 | 2.5 | 75 | — | 0.64 | +0.4 | — |
| 75 | James CookRB · BUF | 15.7 | 9 | 1.5 | 87 | — | 0.78 | — | — |
| 76 | James CookRB · BUF | 15.7 | 9 | 1.5 | 87 | — | 0.78 | +0.3 | — |
| 77 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | 15.7 | 28 | 3.5 | 61 | — | 0.57 | -1.4 | — |
| 78 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 15.7 | 18 | 3.5 | 61 | — | 0.73 | +2.9 | — |
| 79 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | 15.6 | 14 | 2.5 | 76 | — | 0.70 | +2.8 | — |
| 80 | Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE | 15.5 | 24 | 3.5 | 59 | — | 0.63 | +4.1 | — |
| 81 | Breece HallRB · NYJ | 15.4 | 22 | 3.5 | 61 | — | 0.63 | +3.8 | — |
| 82 | Chuba HubbardRB · CAR | 15.4 | 19 | 2.5 | 66 | — | 0.76 | +7.3 | — |
| 83 | Chuba HubbardRB · CAR | 15.4 | 17 | 2.5 | 72 | — | 0.68 | +7.3 | — |
| 84 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 15.0 | 6 | 1.5 | 81 | — | 0.82 | +0.7 | A- |
| 85 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | 14.9 | 13 | 2.5 | 62 | — | 0.84 | +2.6 | — |
| 86 | Chuba HubbardRB · CAR | 14.9 | 15 | 2.5 | 68 | — | 0.70 | +6.8 | — |
| 87 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | 14.9 | 12 | 1.5 | 79 | — | 0.73 | +2.1 | — |
| 88 | Braelon AllenRB · NYJ | 14.9 | 14 | 2.5 | 72 | — | 0.64 | +9.1 | — |
| 89 | Breece HallRB · NYJ | 14.8 | 24 | 2.5 | 64 | — | 0.59 | +3.1 | — |
| 90 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | 14.7 | 18 | 2.5 | 66 | — | 0.66 | +3.1 | — |
| 91 | D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 14.7 | 15 | 2.5 | 65 | — | 0.71 | +2.1 | — |
| 92 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 14.7 | 15 | 2.5 | 57 | — | 0.84 | +1.3 | — |
| 93 | Aaron JonesRB · MIN | 14.4 | 18 | 2.5 | 55 | — | 0.78 | +5.3 | — |
| 94 | Breece HallRB · NYJ | 14.3 | 19 | 2.5 | 63 | — | 0.62 | +2.7 | — |
| 95 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | 14.3 | 21 | 3.5 | 56 | — | 0.54 | -0.2 | — |
| 96 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 14.3 | 7 | 0.5 | 78 | — | 0.90 | -0.1 | A- |
| 97 | D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 14.3 | 14 | 2.5 | 62 | — | 0.72 | +1.7 | — |
| 98 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | 14.2 | 15 | 2.5 | 69 | — | 0.57 | +1.4 | — |
| 99 | James CookRB · BUF | 14.2 | 11 | 1.5 | 76 | — | 0.68 | — | — |
| 100 | James CookRB · BUF | 14.2 | 11 | 1.5 | 76 | — | 0.68 | -1.2 | — |
| 101 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 14.1 | 14 | 2.5 | 58 | — | 0.75 | +0.8 | — |
| 102 | D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 14.1 | 14 | 2.5 | 62 | — | 0.68 | +1.4 | — |
| 103 | Braelon AllenRB · NYJ | 14.1 | 15 | 2.5 | 67 | — | 0.58 | +8.3 | — |
| 104 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 13.9 | 25 | 3.5 | 46 | — | 0.56 | +1.0 | — |
| 105 | David MontgomeryRB · HOU | 13.7 | 13 | 1.5 | 64 | — | 0.77 | +4.5 | — |
| 106 | Travis Etienne Jr.RB · NO | 13.7 | 16 | 2.5 | 58 | — | 0.65 | +0.5 | — |
| 107 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | 13.7 | 14 | 2.5 | 58 | — | 0.68 | 0.0 | A+ |
| 108 | Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLE | 13.6 | 14 | 2.5 | 61 | — | 0.62 | +2.8 | — |
| 109 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | 13.5 | 14 | 2.5 | 61 | — | 0.60 | +1.8 | — |
| 110 | Emanuel WilsonRB · SEA | 13.4 | 12 | 1.5 | 65 | — | 0.72 | +7.5 | — |
| 111 | Chuba HubbardRB · CAR | 13.3 | 13 | 2.5 | 57 | — | 0.65 | +5.2 | — |
| 112 | D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 13.3 | 10 | 1.5 | 62 | — | 0.77 | +0.6 | — |
| 113 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | 13.2 | 17 | 2.5 | 59 | — | 0.54 | +1.6 | — |
| 114 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | 13.1 | 12 | 1.5 | 60 | — | 0.76 | +0.8 | — |
| 115 | Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX | 12.9 | 10 | 1.5 | 66 | — | 0.64 | +6.6 | — |
| 116 | Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE | 12.8 | 19 | 2.5 | 49 | — | 0.60 | +1.5 | — |
| 117 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | 12.8 | 13 | 2.5 | 53 | — | 0.63 | -0.9 | A+ |
| 118 | Emanuel WilsonRB · SEA | 12.7 | 10 | 1.5 | 68 | — | 0.59 | +6.8 | — |
| 119 | Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLE | 12.5 | 15 | 2.5 | 60 | — | 0.43 | +1.6 | — |
| 120 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | 12.3 | 11 | 1.5 | 55 | — | 0.71 | -1.4 | A+ |
“vs base” compares the market to last season's per-game production, regressed toward the positional mean. A large gap means the two disagree about this week — which is the interesting case, not an error. Players with no 2025 prior show a dash. Connect your league to see only your players →